Saudi Aramco: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, the market will be slow to recover; if the delay continues for a few more weeks, the supply shock will extend into next year.
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Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit surged 26%, but its CEO issued a warning: Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, it will take several months for the oil market to return to normal; if the blockade continues for several more weeks, the supply shock will extend to 2027.
On Sunday, Saudi Aramco announced its results for the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted net profit reaching $33.6 billion, a 26% increase year-on-year, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $31.2 billion.
CEO Amin Nasser attributed this performance to the East-West Pipeline operating at full capacity.
In the first quarter, the pipeline reached its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—which is blockaded by Iran—to transport crude oil for export via the Red Sea. Amin Nasser stated in a release:
Our East-West Pipeline has proved to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of global energy shocks and providing support to customers affected by shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amin Nasser further warned:
If trade and shipping are disrupted for more than several weeks, supply interruptions are expected to persist, and the market may not return to normal until 2027.
Strait Tensions Continue, New Attacks Reported
The ceasefire agreement officially took effect on April 8, but related frictions continued into this weekend.
According to CCTV, on the 10th local time, the UAE Ministry of Defense stated that its air defense system successfully detected and intercepted two drones launched from Iran.
The statement also said that the related attack on that day caused no casualties.
According to CCTV, Kuwait's armed forces stated on social media on the 10th that several "enemy" drones entered Kuwaiti airspace that day and were "dealt with according to procedures."
According to CCTV, on the 10th local time, the Qatari Ministry of Defense stated that a commercial vessel en route from Abu Dhabi, UAE, to Qatar was attacked by a drone in Qatari waters early that morning.
The statement said that the attack caused a small fire on the commercial ship, but there were no casualties. After the fire was contained, the ship continued its way to Mesaieed Port, Qatar. The statement pointed out that relevant Qatari departments had taken necessary measures and had coordinated with other parties.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations office stated earlier that day that it received reports that a cargo ship caught fire after being hit by an unidentified flying object while sailing in waters northeast of Doha, Qatar.
Gulf Countries Seek Alternatives, Some Shipping Breakthroughs Seen
Amid ongoing tensions, the main Gulf economies have begun to seek alternative routes to get energy exports to the market.
According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, an LNG tanker carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend—Qatar’s first energy export shipment to leave the region since the crisis began.
The tanker "Al Kharaitiyat" was loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant in early May and has now entered the Gulf of Oman, taking the northern route approved by Iran and running close to the Iranian coastline, with its final destination being Pakistan.
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency confirmed the transit, saying it was the first non-Iranian-associated tanker authorized by the Iranian navy to pass through.
According to a Bloomberg report on Friday, since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco and the UAE’s National Oil Company (Adnoc) have each arranged for some crude shipments to pass through the strait.
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