"Self-driven and irreversible"! Global electric vehicle ownership faces a "critical point"
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Multiple studies and market data show that electric vehicle (EV) adoption has already crossed the "tipping point" in China, parts of Southeast Asia and Europe, with experts describing the trend as "self-driven" and hard to reverse.
On April 25, according to the UK’s Financial Times, electric vehicles will make up a quarter of global new car sales in 2025, and this growth momentum will continue into the first quarter of 2026.
At the same time, a study published in the journal Nature Communications points out that the EV tipping point has "self-propelling" attributes and is no longer highly dependent on policy support.
UBS predicts that by 2035, the combined share of electric, plug-in hybrid, and range-extended EVs in global new car sales will rise from 23% in 2025 to 58%.
On the technical front, UBS’s analysis of next-generation batteries from CATL, Tesla, and General Motors shows that EVs are approaching a "triple parity" with gasoline cars in cost, range, and charging time.
Tipping Point Evidence: Exponential Global EV Sales Expansion
A study jointly published by the University of Exeter and World Bank economists, covering sales data from 32 countries from 2016 to 2023, concludes that traditional gasoline car sales have been declining since around 2019.
Meanwhile, the global stock of EVs and hybrids doubles roughly every 1.5 years. In the EU, it doubles every 1.3 years; in China, every year.
Emerging markets are also seeing strong growth.
Data show that in the first two months of this year, EVs accounted for 56% of new car sales in Singapore, 28% in Thailand from January to March, 21% in Indonesia, 18% in Turkey, and 30% in Uruguay. Demand in South Korea and Brazil has also climbed sharply.
Although these markets are still a small part of overall global auto sales, their growth potential is widely regarded as strong as local consumer buying power increases.
Euan Graham, electricity and data analyst at energy think tank Ember, said, electrification of transport "is an inevitable trend; the only question is how fast, and the road ahead will still have bumps."
Europe Rebounds: Oil Price Shocks and Policy Support Combine
In Europe, Middle East conflicts have driven up fuel prices, and in March, EU EV sales surged 49% year-on-year; total Q1 sales grew about a third, accounting for 19% of new EU car sales.
In December last year, monthly sales of pure electric cars on the European continent briefly surpassed those of gasoline cars.
However, there are stark differences in penetration rates across countries.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (Acea), EVs account for 98% of new car sales in Norway, but only 8-9% in Spain and Italy. In March, UK EV sales hit a historic high with a 23% market share, and with combined government and manufacturer subsidies, the average price of new energy vehicles is now lower than that of gasoline cars.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), remains cautious, saying:
We are approaching 25% penetration, but this is a market ‘driven’ by policy; in the past two years, the auto industry has spent £1 billion on EV subsidies.
He also warned that cost-of-living increases triggered by the Middle East conflict may weaken consumer confidence.
China Market: Declining Policy Support Hits Short-term Sales, Long-term Momentum Still Watched
The Chinese market has shown significant fluctuations recently.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data, after China cut EV subsidies, domestic new energy vehicle sales fell 21% year-on-year in the first quarter.
However, Tim Lenton, climate scientist at the University of Exeter and expert on tipping point research, noted that China sharply cut subsidies before the COVID pandemic, leading to a brief market slowdown but then "rapidly restarted". He stated he is confident that long-term demand in the Chinese market is no longer reliant on government incentives.
Meanwhile, China’s momentum in EV exports remains strong, with emerging markets becoming important sources of growth.
Ember pointed out that Indonesia and Vietnam are also accelerating local EV production. Lenton noted that in some major urban streets, Chinese brands like BYD are now everywhere, "and consumers are rushing to buy".
Western Carmakers Waver Strategically as Parity Approaches
Headwinds in policy and market uncertainty have had substantial impacts on traditional western carmakers.
Due to the reversal of U.S. climate policy and slowing transformation in parts of Europe, many western auto companies were forced to rethink their strategies, spending over $75 billion, reducing pure EV plans, and increasing investment in hybrids instead.
Kia Europe’s Market Director David Hilbert believes it will still take time for other European countries to catch up with early movers in northern Europe, and does not believe a tipping point has arrived.
But Octopus Electric Vehicles founder Fiona Howarth holds the opposite view, arguing that longer range, lower prices, and reduced use costs are "irreversibly changing" consumer behavior, which is an "early signal of the market crossing the tipping point".
UBS analyst Patrick Hummel, after analyzing new-generation batteries from CATL, Tesla, and GM, concluded:
Even in markets where policies or regulations are quite unfavorable to EVs, technological innovation ultimately cannot be stopped.
He further stated that he is "very confident" that EV adoption will accelerate globally in the medium and long term, and that the U.S. market will also pick up pace again.
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