Severe supply-demand imbalance, Nand flash is expected to increase in price by 90% in the first quarter.

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The NAND flash market is experiencing another round of dramatic supply-demand imbalance. Driven by the boom in AI infrastructure construction and restricted supply expansion, flash memory prices continue to rise, and the market landscape is reshaping rapidly.

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the combined revenue of the world's top five NAND flash brands saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.8%, reaching $21.17 billion. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, TrendForce has raised its overall NAND flash price forecast to a quarter-on-quarter increase of 85% to 90%, with revenue levels expected to grow further.

The core driving force behind the supply-demand imbalance comes from North American cloud service providers (CSPs) building large-scale AI server infrastructure, triggering explosive growth in enterprise SSD demand.

At the same time, severe HDD shortages and excessively long lead times have caused an order shift effect, further exacerbating NAND flash shortages and driving price increases. Major manufacturers remain highly motivated to continue raising prices.

All five major manufacturers see quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, SK Group leads the way

In the fourth quarter of 2025, major NAND flash suppliers generally recorded strong revenue growth, but individual performances varied significantly.

Samsung ranked first with $6.6 billion in revenue, up 10% quarter-on-quarter, but its market share dropped to 28%. TrendForce pointed out that while the average selling price of Samsung's products grew noticeably, shipment volume declined due to a high base in the previous quarter and losses from process transition, dragging down overall performance.

SK Group led the industry with a 47.8% quarter-on-quarter growth rate, posting $5.21 billion in revenue and maintaining its second place with a 22.1% market share. Its shipment growth momentum mainly came from the mobile NAND flash and enterprise SSD product lines.

Kioxia recorded $3.31 billion in revenue, up 16.5% quarter-on-quarter, achieving single-quarter highs in both revenue and shipments. Micron's revenue rose 24.8% to nearly $3.03 billion, ranking fourth. The company continues to increase QLC production and expand supply of products using ninth-generation NAND flash technology, helping bit output growth in 2026. SanDisk’s revenue was nearly $3.03 billion, up 31.1% quarter-on-quarter, ranking fifth. Benefiting from the overall NAND supply shortage, the company has aggressively expanded its previously weak server segment, achieving significant progress in data center business.

Limited capacity expansion paired with explosive AI demand, high prices expected to persist throughout the year

TrendForce pointed out that in 2026, with limited foreseeable NAND flash capacity expansion and ongoing explosive AI demand, prices will remain high.

From the supply side, major manufacturers have not opted for large-scale capacity expansion, but rather accelerated technological upgrades, shifting product focus to large-capacity QLC enterprise SSDs such as 122TB and 245TB, to meet generative AI's demand for high-capacity and high-speed transmission. Capacity resources continue to tilt towards servers, significantly squeezing supply for consumer products.

This structural shift means the supply-demand divergence between enterprise and consumer markets will deepen further. For downstream manufacturers relying on consumer NAND products, supply shortages and price pressures may persist; while suppliers deeply involved in enterprise SSD and AI storage solutions are expected to continue benefiting from this round of price increases.

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