Shadow of Tariffs Looms as U.S. Consumers Shift to Stockpiling Essentials for Black Friday

This Black Friday, American consumers’ shopping carts have changed significantly, shifting from pursuing big-ticket discounts to stocking up on daily necessities like dog food and dish detergent. This trend reflects concerns about rising tariffs and persistently increasing living costs.

According to the latest data from the National Retail Federation, 85% of consumers expect tariffs to drive up prices, prompting them to be more cautious with purchasing strategies. Nearly two-thirds of consumers chose to wait for deep discounts over the Thanksgiving weekend to make their main holiday purchases, with expected per capita holiday spending to slightly decrease from last year’s record high.

This shift in shopping behavior became evident this summer. During Amazon Prime Day, household products like dish detergent and dishwasher cleaner ranked among the top sellers. Deloitte’s report shows that 64% of consumers planned to buy discounted daily essentials during the October sales period, up from 58% in 2024.

American consumers’ concerns over personal financial status have reached their highest since 2009, according to the University of Michigan. High prices and the recent wave of layoffs have triggered job worries, reshaping consumption habits.

Essentials Replace Luxuries as Shopping Focus

This year’s Black Friday shopping lists have obviously become more practical. Mark Mathews, chief economist of the National Retail Federation, stated, “As we saw in this summer’s back-to-school shopping season, consumers are keen to use holiday promotions to buy daily necessities.”

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk pointed out that more consumers are showing budget awareness and selective spending: “This means more essentials instead of discretionary goods. Whenever there’s a discount opportunity, they grab it.”

Bank of America Institute’s holiday shopping survey shows that 62% of shoppers are experiencing financial stress, with 87% planning to turn to discount stores due to rising prices. This trend differs notably among income groups; Moody’s Analytics data reveals that the top 10% income earners contributed nearly half of total spending in the second quarter, while middle- and lower-income groups are more cautious.

Tariff Expectations Drive Stockpiling Behavior

Tariff threats are becoming a key consideration in consumer shopping decisions. Consumers are starting to bulk-buy imported goods such as personal care and pet food to avoid potential price increases in the future.

Latest government data indicates that retail sales lost momentum in September, with declines in categories like electronics, appliances, sporting goods, and bookstores. Bank of America Institute’s senior economist David Tinsley predicts that although overall holiday season spending will remain strong, data may appear elevated because consumers are paying higher prices for goods rather than actually buying more.

Cash and Gift Cards Favored

Consumers have not only changed their own shopping habits but are also adjusting their expectations for gifts. KPMG’s survey shows that people anticipate buying fewer gifts this year and are more inclined to receive cash and gift cards rather than other goods.

Joel Waldfogel, professor at University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management, believes that spending less on gifts, or giving essentials instead of luxury items, is a way for consumers to avoid wasting family finances. “Getting socks or underwear under the Christmas tree may be disappointing, but it’s a safe expense.”

This shift from impulsive to planned spending marks a more conservative financial strategy adopted by American consumers amid economic uncertainty.

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