Signal of Moutai's pricing reform! Goldman Sachs: The liquor industry accelerates price clearing, may bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year.

Signal of Moutai's pricing reform! Goldman Sachs: The liquor industry accelerates price clearing, may bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year.

Moutai has recently accelerated reforms in pricing, channels, and direct sales, with a clearer shift towards a market-driven pricing system. Goldman Sachs believes this signals the bottoming out of the baijiu industry, and Moutai’s pricing actions will speed up the normalization of channel prices and profits, as well as promote channel discipline and inventory reduction.

On January 1, Moutai officially announced adjustments to the suggested retail prices of key non-standard Moutai series products, and adjusted the factory prices in sync with channel research. The iMoutai platform officially launched the Feitian Moutai series on January 1, including 53° 500ml (vintages 2019-2026), 100ml/1000ml Feitian, and multiple series products, with a suggested retail price of 1,499 RMB per bottle.

According to ChaseWind Trading Desk, the Goldman Sachs Leaf Liu team stated in their January 14 report that retail demand for premium baijiu remains weak year-over-year. Goldman’s weekly tracking data and channel research show that despite improvement driven by the New Year’s holiday in 2026 compared with November-December 2025, year-over-year demand for premium baijiu remains weak. This is consistent with comments at recent distributor conferences: terminal sales are currently at 50%-70% of previous levels, and the sector still needs time to bottom out.

Goldman Sachs expects the baijiu industry to see opportunities to bottom out in the second half of 2026, mainly due to a rebound in demand for high-end banquets and business occasions based on the extremely low base of June 2025. At the same time, they expect baijiu companies to face intensified financial pressure in the first half of 2026, due to accelerated inventory reduction and potential price adjustments.

iMoutai Platform Moves Expanding

Moutai’s actions on the iMoutai platform continue to expand. The platform has officially launched the Feitian Moutai series and multiple product lines, including premium, zodiac, vintage, cultural, and lower alcohol varieties. iMoutai keeps expanding its demand coverage; since the launch of Feitian on January 1, 2.7 million new users have joined in nine days, with trading users reaching 400,000/100,000 in nine/three days respectively.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, if only counting Feitian Moutai sales (first three days limited to 12 bottles or 2 cases per person, and six bottles or one case before Spring Festival), iMoutai may contribute about 4.5 billion RMB in total sales in the first nine days of 2026, equivalent to about 35% of iMoutai’s revenue in the first nine months of 2025 (12.7 billion RMB), and 3.4% of Moutai’s total revenue in the first nine months of 2025 (131 billion RMB).

According to "Daily Liquor Price" information, Moutai has also adjusted the contract prices of several mid-to-high-end products for distributors, including premium Moutai, Moutai 15 Years (to be launched on iMoutai on January 13), 43° Moutai, and Moutai 1935.

In terms of wholesale price trends, over the past two weeks, Feitian Moutai wholesale prices declined, while Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remained relatively stable. Original-case Feitian Moutai wholesale price per bottle fell by 40 RMB, from 1,575 RMB to 1,535 RMB; loose-bottle Feitian Moutai price fell by 30 RMB, from 1,560 RMB to 1,530 RMB.

For other Moutai products, the wholesale price of Zodiac/Color Glaze premium bottles increased by 45 RMB/150 RMB per bottle, while premium Moutai/Moutai 15 Years/1L Feitian Moutai decreased by 20 RMB/120 RMB/70 RMB per bottle, respectively. Wholesale price per bottle for Wuliangye remains at 850 RMB/810 RMB (according to "Daily Liquor Price"/Bairong wholesale market data), and Guojiao 1573 remains at 840 RMB.

It is worth noting that the factory prices for premium Moutai and Moutai 15 Years have been lowered from the previous 2,699 RMB/5,399 RMB per bottle to 1,859 RMB/3,409 RMB.

Demand Recovery Still Needs Time

High-end baijiu companies plan to increase investment in low-alcohol/low-tier markets to achieve incremental gains, continue disciplined delivery strategies, and strengthen channel support. Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Liduo Group both stated at recent distributor meetings that current terminal sales are about 50%-70% of previous levels.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the baijiu industry will see an opportunity to bottom out in the second half of 2026, mainly driven by the recovery of demand for high-end banquets and business occasions from the extremely low base in June 2025. However, at the same time, baijiu enterprises’ financial performance will face greater pressure in the first half of 2026, primarily due to accelerated inventory reduction and potential price adjustments.

The industry’s price clearing process will continue. As the industry leader, Moutai’s pricing reform will set an example for the entire baijiu sector, promoting the normalization of channel price systems and profit levels, and accelerating industry inventory reduction. While this adjustment may put pressure on companies' financial performance in the short term, it will be beneficial for the industry’s healthy development in the long run.

 

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The above content is from ChaseWind Trading Desk.

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