Signs of easing in the Iran conflict are scarce; Brent crude is poised to break the record for the largest monthly increase in history!

```

International oil prices surged sharply on Monday. Brent crude's monthly gain is approaching 60%, likely to set the largest monthly increase on record.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued a new threat to Iran regarding a ceasefire. On the 30th, Trump stated that the US is engaged in serious talks with a "new, more rational regime", and if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached, he will "completely destroy" all of the country's power plants, oil wells, and Khark Island. The Iranian side believes that while the US is signaling negotiations, it is also planning a ground offensive, and the US deployment of more troops to the Middle East supports this view.

Signs of conflict spreading further elevate supply risks, with rising oil prices putting increasing pressure on broader global energy markets. JPMorgan analysts point out that the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb - all key global energy trade routes - are now exposed to conflict risks. With rerouting options narrowing, systemic risks to the worldwide supply chain are rising significantly.

Trump’s Threat Escalates, Oil Prices Leap

On Monday, according to FactSet data, the Brent crude May futures contract rose 2.1% to $114.71 per barrel, the most active June contract simultaneously rose 2.1% to $107.39 per barrel; WTI crude May contract climbed 2% to $100.77 per barrel.

Brent crude futures have gained nearly 60% this month, likely to set the highest monthly increase ever. So far this month, WTI crude futures have surged 51.2%. Intraday, Brent crude hit a high of $108.78 per barrel, WTI peaked at $101.78 per barrel.

Trump wrote on social media, "The US is engaged in serious talks with a new, more rational regime to end our military operation in Iran. Great progress has been made, but if—for any reason—we fail to reach an agreement soon (which is likely to happen), and the Strait of Hormuz does not immediately 'open for business', we will draw a close to our pleasant 'stay' in Iran by bombing and completely destroying all their power plants, oil wells, and Khark Island (possibly including all desalination plants)—targets we have intentionally avoided until now."

Spreading Conflict, Two Major Energy Routes Under Pressure

The JPMorgan analyst team, led by Natasha Kaneva, noted in a report released Sunday that the conflict has extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb—critical chokepoints for global oil trade—now embroiled. "In fact, two major channels of global energy trade are simultaneously facing risks, rerouting options narrowing, and systemic risk to global supply chains rising dramatically."

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said Trump's remarks about seizing Iranian oil and Khark Island, the movement of US military reinforcements, and Houthi involvement together create a scenario of escalating conflict rather than resolution.

Geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, key shipping routes are blocked, diplomatic negotiation prospects are unclear—these are keeping oil prices strong at high levels and potentially impacting global energy supply chains and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky, invest cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users’ particular investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions expressed herein fit their own circumstances. Investments made accordingly are at your own risk. ```