Singapore shifts to Russian oil amid Middle East turmoil; April imports set to hit monthly record high

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is continuing to disrupt the global energy market. Singapore, the world's largest ship fuel port, is now filling the supply gap left by the Middle East with Russian fuel. This shift reflects the profound reshaping of the global energy trade pattern by geopolitical conflicts.

According to a Friday report from the UK's Financial Times, energy data agency Vortexa shows that Singapore's imports of Russian fuel in April have already more than doubled the average monthly level of 2025, and are expected to reach a record single-month high since 2016.

Meanwhile, fuel supplies from the Middle Eastern Gulf region have shrunk significantly, with the combined daily arrivals for March-April dropping sharply to 336,000 barrels from 522,000 barrels in January-February.

This switch in supply structure is propagating to global markets. Rystad Energy analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu warns that, due to Singapore bidding higher than other regions, available global fuel cargoes are concentrating in Singapore, and regions like Europe will “almost inevitably” face supply tightness in the coming weeks. Although Brent crude prices have retreated from the early April high of nearly $110/barrel, they are still holding near $105/barrel.

Conflict Impact: Hormuz Blockade Triggers Supply Gaps

The Iranian conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are the direct triggers of this round of turmoil in the energy market.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global energy transport corridor. Its blockade not only drove up global energy prices but also caused shortages of key products like aviation fuel and marine fuel (i.e., ship fuel).

Vortexa data shows that March-April’s combined daily fuel arrivals from the Gulf region dropped sharply to 336,000 barrels from 522,000 barrels in January-February. In contrast, Russian fuel’s combined daily arrival during the same period rose from 372,000 barrels to 585,000 barrels, effectively offsetting the supply gap from the Middle East.

Vessel flow data also confirms this trend. According to BloombergNEF, Singapore’s vessel arrivals in March grew 7% month-on-month and nearly 15% year-on-year, as large numbers of ships reroute to Singapore to avoid Middle Eastern routes.

Price Surge: Marine Fuel Costs Rise Over $800 Since Early Year

Supply tightness has directly pushed up ship fuel prices. According to price reporting agency Argus, despite a slight retreat from the historic high at the end of March, premium-grade low-sulfur marine fuel still costs about $800/ton more than in January. This grade is mainly used in port areas to meet emission reduction requirements.

Argus analyst Siew Hua Seah says that in most Asian ports, “as long as you’re willing to pay the supplier’s premium, fuel can still be found, but inventory levels are very low.” She also notes that as demand has eased and new shipments have arrived at ports including Singapore, supply availability has improved in April.

Data shows that Singapore’s fuel inventory dropped about 11% in the past two weeks, highlighting inventory pressure.

Russian Oil Influx: Compliance under Sanctions Framework

The large influx of Russian fuel is occurring under a complex international sanctions framework.

Singapore itself has not imposed sanctions on specific Russian oil products, but traders using Western shipping services must comply with the set price caps. Notably, the US has recently temporarily exempted maritime transportation of Russian oil from sanctions in a bid to curb price increases.

According to maritime data company Veson Nautical, about 20 Russian tankers have docked at relevant Singapore anchorages so far this year, several of which are on EU and US sanctions lists, compared to only 5 in January-April last year. Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air also shows that Singapore’s imports of Russian oil products in March doubled from February, with the increase in fuel being most significant.

Singapore’s high premiums are creating a “siphon effect,” pulling scarce global fuel cargoes into Asia, putting other regions under potential supply pressure. Paola Rodriguez-Masiu of Rystad Energy points out that Europe is at a pricing disadvantage: “It hasn’t felt the pain yet, but almost inevitably supply issues will begin in the coming weeks.”

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