Sino-U.S. Peace Talks Stuck at an "Impasse"? Four Major Core Obstacles Prove Difficult to Overcome
Since the ceasefire agreement was reached this April, negotiations between the US and Iran have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict. Although a draft said to be “close to agreement” is surfacing, there are still four major core obstacles to lasting peace.
According to Xinhua, citing Saudi Al Arabiya Television on the 22nd, the content of the US-Iran “close to agreement” draft includes immediately, comprehensively, and unconditionally ceasing hostilities across all fronts. The draft also includes assurances not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure; to halt military actions and stop media warfare; to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in internal affairs; to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman; and to establish joint monitoring and conflict resolution mechanisms.
However, whether the above framework can be implemented remains highly uncertain. According to Bloomberg, the current core four differences are the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions topics. For investors, this war has thrown global energy markets into extreme turmoil; any progress or breakdown in negotiations will impact commodity prices.
Strait of Hormuz: The lifeblood of global energy becomes a key negotiation point
The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for about one fifth of global oil trade. After war broke out, restrictions on passage directly pushed up energy prices and exacerbated global inflation. According to vessel tracking data by Bloomberg, commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to extremely low levels.
According to reports this Thursday, Iran is currently consulting with Oman on how to establish some form of permanent toll collection mechanism, in order to formally establish its control over commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Thereafter, Trump stated he is paying attention to the issues surrounding Oman and Strait of Hormuz tolls. Trump reiterated that the US has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that the US maritime blockade of Iran is 100% effective. He also stated that without US approval, no vessel can pass Iran.
Iran’s ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad, stated that Iran’s consultation with Oman on establishing a permanent toll mechanism shows it is unwilling to easily relinquish control over the strait. The market currently worries that if US-Iran negotiations break down or military friction escalates again, the Strait of Hormuz may once again become the largest risk source for the global energy market.
Nuclear Deadlock: Ownership of enriched uranium is the biggest difference
The nuclear issue is the most complex topic in the negotiations.
The US demands that Iran abandon its nuclear capabilities, keeping only the Bushehr nuclear power plant, to ensure it cannot produce nuclear weapons. Iran has long denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons and insists it has the right to possess enriched uranium for civilian purposes.
Trump not only reiterated “absolutely not allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons,” but also stated the US will ultimately obtain Iran’s enriched uranium. This stance sharply contrasts with that of Iran. Earlier on Thursday, according to media reports cited by Xinhua, Iran’s Supreme Leader has instructed that enriched uranium must not be moved out of the country.
According to reports, two Iranian sources said, “The Supreme Leader’s directive and internal consensus of authorities is that stocks of enriched uranium must not be transported out of Iran. Iranian senior officials believe that moving nuclear materials abroad will make Iran more vulnerable to US and Israeli attacks in the future.”
Analysts point out that the US long hoped Iran would transfer high-enrichment uranium abroad to reduce its ability for “weapons-grade breakthrough” in the short term; meanwhile, Iran insists on retaining domestic control. Now that Trump has openly declared “the United States will get the enriched uranium,” the gap between the two sides on this key issue remains huge.
Lebanon Stalemate: Tug-of-war between diplomacy and actual combat
The Lebanese front is another thorny challenge to reaching an agreement.
Iran insists that any final agreement must simultaneously end Israel’s military operations in Lebanon. According to CCTV News, Iran’s Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf spoke with Lebanon’s Speaker Berri on the 16th, saying that achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon is as important as achieving a ceasefire in Iran. A Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson on the 16th said Lebanon is part of the US-Iran ceasefire negotiation process, and easing tensions in Lebanon is conducive to advancing ceasefire negotiations.
Diplomatically, the US is actively promoting the ceasefire. According to Xinhua, under US mediation, Israel and Lebanon respectively held two rounds of ambassadorial-level talks in Washington on April 14 and 23. On April 17, Israel and Lebanon began a 10-day temporary ceasefire, and US President Trump announced on April 23 an extension of the ceasefire by three weeks. Lebanon stated on May 15 that the third round of Lebanon-US-Israel talks in Washington had achieved “diplomatic progress beneficial to Lebanon,” and all parties agreed to extend the ceasefire by another 45 days. Since the ceasefire took effect, the Israeli army, citing violations of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah, has launched almost daily airstrikes on southern Lebanon and destroyed so-called “Hezbollah military infrastructure” in areas it occupies in southern Lebanon.
Iran’s repeatedly drawn red line: lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets
Sanctions and asset unfreezing constitute another core demand for agreement, one that Iran has repeatedly stressed must not be compromised.
According to CCTV News, on the 18th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei answered reporters’ questions at a Foreign Ministry press conference, stating that in negotiations with the US, Iran demands release of frozen funds and lifting of sanctions.
Baghaei said for many years, Iran’s assets have been frozen in numerous banks, and Iran has been unable to access these assets. As for lifting sanctions, this is also one of Iran’s demands. These two demands are raised by the Iranian negotiation delegation in every round of talks.
On the 22nd local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said in an interview that Iran does not ask the US for any “concessions,” but only demands its legitimate rights. Baghaei emphasized Iran’s demand that the US cease its “evil acts” against the Iranian people, that relevant sanctions must be lifted, and Iran’s frozen assets must be released and returned to Iran.
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