"Sister Wood" predicts that SpaceX's Starship launch will generate $10 trillion in revenue; Musk responds: Not impossible.

The commercial potential of SpaceX's Starship is being further expanded. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, recently predicted that each Starship launch could generate approximately $1 billion in annual revenue, and if calculated based on Musk's proposed annual launch target, Starship's annual revenue could even reach $10 trillion by 2030.

This prediction quickly attracted market attention. Musk himself responded to Wood's post on the social media platform X, simply stating "It's not impossible" in just three English words , adding fuel to the fire of this highly controversial revenue forecast.

Wood's assessment is largely based on Musk's aggressive target for Starship launch frequency. Previously, Musk stated on the X platform that SpaceX's goal is to achieve more than 30 Starship launches per day by 2030, reaching an annualized number of approximately 10,000 launches , adding that this is still a very small number compared to airplane flights.

Wood further linked this launch capability to Starlink's commercial potential. ARK Invest data shows that Starlink's cumulative on-orbit bandwidth has been growing steadily in recent years, while SpaceX's next-generation V3 satellites have even higher single-satellite bandwidth. Combined with Starship's carrying capacity, which far exceeds that of existing rockets, this is expected to significantly increase the network capacity that can be deployed in a single launch, thereby expanding Starlink's service capabilities and revenue potential.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is about to begin deploying the V3 satellite, and Starship's commercialization capabilities will be put to practical use. Company CFO Bret Johnsen stated that Starship's 14th flight will carry a production version of the V3 satellite and will be Starship's "first revenue-generating flight." This means that whether Starship can gradually move from high-frequency testing to sustainable commercial launches will begin to be validated by actual revenue data.

From Starlink bandwidth to $1 billion in revenue per launch

Wood's predictions are based on the analytical framework of Sam Korus, Director of Strategy and Investment at ARK Invest. Korus calculated, based on data from 2023 to 2025, that Starlink's cumulative on-orbit bandwidth would reach 190, 335, and 606 Tbps, respectively, corresponding to communication revenues of $3.9 billion, $7.6 billion, and $11.4 billion.

Based on this calculation, the annual revenue per Tbps of bandwidth would be approximately $21 million, $23 million, and $19 million, respectively. Korus used the latest figure of $19 million as the revenue per unit of bandwidth, and then multiplied it by the approximately 61 Tbps of bandwidth capacity that can be deployed per Starship launch, concluding that "each Starship launch brings in approximately $1 billion in annual revenue."

The core of this calculation lies in the capacity of the V3 satellites. SpaceX disclosed that each V3 satellite is designed with a downlink bandwidth of 1 Tbps, and Starship can deploy up to about 60 V3 satellites at a time, corresponding to more than 60 Tbps of additional bandwidth, with an overall bandwidth throughput more than 20 times that of a Falcon 9 launch mission.

Korus also pointed out that as Starlink's bandwidth supply continues to expand, revenue per Tbps may gradually decline, meaning that the aforementioned $1 billion is not a fixed revenue level. However, even if revenue per bandwidth declines, the larger scale of satellite deployment could still drive continued growth in Starlink's communications revenue.

Can Starship's high-frequency launches support $10 trillion in revenue?

Building on Korus's calculations, Wood further linked the revenue potential of a single launch to Musk's long-term launch goals. She stated on the X platform that Musk plans to achieve 10,000 Starship launches per year by 2030, which translates to potentially $10 trillion in annual revenue for Starship.

This figure is significantly different from Musk's previously stated revenue targets. In June of this year, Musk stated that SpaceX "might" achieve approximately $1 trillion in revenue by 2030; and that the company's revenue in 2025 was $18.67 billion. Therefore, the $10 trillion figure is currently an external projection based on transmission frequency and bandwidth monetization capabilities, and not an official guidance from SpaceX.

However, this revenue model is now entering the practical verification stage. Musk confirmed on Tuesday that SpaceX will begin deploying its next-generation Starlink V3 constellation this month, stating that its final bandwidth will be more than 100 times that of the existing network of approximately 11,000 satellites. SpaceX currently plans to conduct the 14th Starship flight on September 22nd, pending regulatory approval.

To achieve 10,000 launches per year, the Starship's own manufacturing capabilities are also a key constraint. Musk recently stated regarding the Raptor 3 that he would advise startups against attempting to manufacture the engine, as its internal structure is extremely complex and can only be produced using highly modified metal 3D printing technology.

More importantly, the 14th flight will carry a production version of the V3 satellite. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen previously stated that this will be Starship's "first revenue-generating flight." As V3 begins deployment, Starship's launch frequency, Starlink capacity increments, and revenue conversion capabilities per launch will gradually move from theoretical calculations to practical verification.

Risk warning and disclaimerInvesting involves risk; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.