Situation in the Hormuz escalates again: Supertanker suspected of being attacked by mines, Brent crude oil breaks through the $91 mark.

Military tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to jump. A supertanker was reportedly struck by a mine and caught fire in the strait. Brent crude oil broke through $91 per barrel, and diesel crack spreads approached $100, as market concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies intensified sharply.

According to CCTV International News, Iranian state television reported today (August 31) that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that a supertanker "caught fire and stopped sailing after being struck by two mines in the Strait of Hormuz." The Revolutionary Guard claimed that the tanker was attempting to "illegally pass through the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz." The Revolutionary Guard emphasized that ships must abide by its regulations regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the U.S. military conducted airstrikes on two Revolutionary Guard facilities on Iran's Larak Island on August 30, citing observations of personnel preparing to launch mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the first time in over a month that the U.S. has used force against Iran. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones, targeting U.S. bases in Jordan and Qatar. According to Fox News, citing U.S. officials, all missiles were intercepted without causing significant damage.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Donald Trump said on August 31 that the US would retaliate against Iran's attack on US bases in Jordan. In an interview with Fox News that day, Trump stated that there would be a "definite response" to the Iranian attack, adding, "We will hit them (Iran) hard." Trump claimed that the US air defense system "let one missile go because it wouldn't hit anything" in response to the Iranian attack, while other missiles were intercepted.

According to CCTV International News, Trump posted on social media today, "Iran has officially become a failed state. It is dead! They have no navy, no air force, no currency, can't pay their soldiers or police, inflation is 300%, the leadership is a complete mess, and it doesn't represent the country properly." On the evening of August 30th local time, the US military attacked Larak Island in southern Iran. Iran subsequently launched missile and drone strikes against US military bases in the region.

US and Iran clash again, with Larak Island becoming the new focal point of conflict.

At approximately 10:00 PM local time on August 30, an explosion was heard on Larak Island, Iran. US Central Command spokesman Tim Hawkins confirmed that the US carried out precision strikes on two Revolutionary Guard missile launchers on the island, stating that the action was aimed at eliminating an "imminent threat" to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the first direct military exchange between the US and Iran in about a month.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard immediately announced retaliation, launching missiles and drones at two US bases in Jordan, and reportedly also launching dozens of drones at the Al Minhad airbase in the United Arab Emirates. The UAE Ministry of Defense denied that the Al Minhad base had been attacked, calling the claims "baseless" and stating that the base was on high alert. US officials stated that all eight missiles launched by Iran at the Jordanian bases were intercepted without causing significant damage.

Explosions were heard again on Larak Island in the early hours of the 31st, and the situation remains tense.

Supertanker suspected of being hit by a mine, threatening the safety of passage through the strait.

The Revolutionary Guard claimed that an unidentified supertanker caught fire and stopped sailing after being struck by two mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and warned all vessels to abide by its established rules of passage. The Revolutionary Guard also announced the downing of a U.S. MQ-9 drone.

The U.S. Central Command previously stated that the U.S. military had cleared Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz and announced the reopening of the waterway. Currently, approximately 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil per day—primarily from U.S. allies in the Gulf—are still transiting the Oman shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, this suspected mine attack by Iran demonstrates that its threat to the Straits has not been completely eliminated. Analysts point out that as Iran's conventional maritime denial capabilities weaken, its tactics are shifting towards low-cost asymmetric methods, including using small vessels to monitor passing merchant ships and laying mines in the waterways.

Oil prices surged, with diesel crack spreads approaching the 100 yuan mark.

Driven by a sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions, Brent crude futures rose 2.5%, briefly breaking through $91 per barrel to reach $90.48; WTI crude rose more than 1.7%, breaking through $86. Meanwhile, diesel crack spreads again approached $100 per barrel, indicating that the tight supply in the refined oil market continued to worsen as summer ended.

UBS analyst Dharmesh Gangaram wrote in a research report: "Brent crude strengthened, with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz supporting geopolitical risk premiums. Overall, the market opened cautiously, with geopolitical developments and low liquidity in Europe being the main drivers, particularly in the resources sector."

Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at energy hedge fund Gallo Partners, said: "Tonight's renewed strike on Iran not only highlights the fragility of de-escalation but also reaffirms the Revolutionary Guard's determination to obstruct freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz... This situation is like a never-ending powder keg, continuously embedding risk premiums into oil prices."

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, cautioned: "The key is to track actual flows. As long as crude oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, market buying interest will remain restrained due to concerns about being trapped."

Escalating sanctions put pressure on Iran's economy.

Beyond military action, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the U.S. plans to impose additional secondary sanctions on Iran weekly, initially targeting the banking sector . He stated that the U.S. will clearly inform banks that they must not hold Iranian funds or assist the Iranian regime, and warned that subsequent sanctions would directly target relevant banks. Previously, the U.S. had already imposed restrictions on a branch of an Egyptian bank in the UAE.

Iranian President Pezeshkian acknowledged that Iran's imports and exports have declined by as much as 35% due to US sanctions and blockades, and announced an increase in domestic gasoline prices. He also stated that Iran is not seeking war, but will give a "decisive response" to aggressors, and that regional instability is not in the interest of any country.

Iran's Foreign Ministry warned that it would respond resolutely to any further military aggression and stated that the United States and all parties supporting its military actions must bear full responsibility for the consequences of the escalation.

The situation remains uncertain, and the market continues to focus on traffic data.

Currently, neither the US nor Iran has shown a clear willingness to de-escalate tensions. US officials stated they will continue to monitor the Strait of Hormuz and will strike any forces that threaten freedom of navigation. The Revolutionary Guard warned that any attack against Iran would provoke a "more devastating response."

Analysts point out that the core of this conflict lies in the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz—Iran is attempting to reclaim jurisdiction over passing ships, while the United States is committed to maintaining the unimpeded flow of traffic. Despite the ongoing fighting, millions of barrels of crude oil still pass through the strait daily via the Oman shipping corridor, although traffic volume has decreased. Whether the situation will escalate further, and changes in actual crude oil flow, will be the key variables of greatest concern to the market.

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