SK Hynix "slows down," Samsung "sprints ahead," the battle for HBM4 supremacy enters a new stage

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SK Hynix is proactively stepping on the accelerator for HBM4 capacity expansion, shifting its strategic focus toward the higher-margin conventional DRAM market, while competitor Samsung is accelerating at full speed on the HBM4 track.

According to the latest reports from Korean media, SK Hynix is slowing down the ramp-up pace of HBM4 capacity and is cutting some plans to convert production lines from HBM3E to HBM4. The company believes that since it already holds a strong position in the HBM market, there is no need to aggressively bet on capacity expansion for the next-generation product.

At the same time, Samsung Electronics’ HBM4 revenue has reportedly surpassed $1 billion, making it the first company in the industry to reach this milestone within four months of mass production, and the divergence between the two giants on their HBM4 strategies is becoming increasingly apparent.

SK Hynix's share price fell by 7.5% on Tuesday, while Samsung also recorded a significant decline on the same day.

SK Hynix: Profit First, Proactively Slowing HBM4

The key logic behind SK Hynix slowing HBM4 capacity expansion lies in proactive margin management. According to Chosun Biz, HBM business currently accounts for more than 40% of the company’s total revenue. With its solid market position, continuing large investments in HBM4 expansion offers limited marginal gains.

In contrast, the profit outlook for the conventional DRAM market is becoming increasingly attractive. Analysts expect DRAM operating margins to approach the theoretical peak of 90% within the year. In Q1, SK Hynix’s average DRAM selling price rose by about 60% quarter-on-quarter, and the company stated it will focus on high-density server modules and mobile demand. In addition, its three-year DDR5 supply agreement with Microsoft is widely seen as strengthening its long-term profit visibility in the conventional DRAM field.

In terms of capacity planning, according to TrendForce, SK Hynix’s large-scale HBM4 mass production timeline has been pushed back, with meaningful ramp-up expected to extend to Q3 2026. As a result, its annual HBM4 shipment forecast has been lowered from 450 billion Gb to 400 billion Gb.

Samsung: HBM4 Revenue Breaks $1 Billion, Accelerates Pursuit

In sharp contrast to SK Hynix’s cautious approach, Samsung is going all out on the HBM4 track. According to Yonhap and ZDNet, Samsung’s HBM4 revenue has exceeded $1 billion, and is expected to further break $1.2 billion by the end of June.

TrendForce points out that Samsung’s technological edge in HBM4 comes from adopting the 4nm FinFET process node for its base chip, with a certification timeline ahead of its competitors. Thanks to this, Samsung’s annual HBM4 shipment forecast has been slightly revised upward from 350 billion Gb to 400 billion Gb.

Samsung’s strong performance in HBM4 is also seen as a direct challenge to SK Hynix’s dominance in the high-bandwidth memory market—the latter leveraged leadership in HBM to push its stock price up more than 340% year-to-date at one point.

Multiple Negatives Weigh on Stock Prices

SK Hynix shares fell 7.5% on Tuesday, sharply retreating from the previous trading day’s historic high of ₩2,945,000. Prior to this, the company's market capitalization briefly surpassed that of Samsung Electronics, becoming the largest listed company in Korea.

This pullback was the result of multiple factors converging.

First, profit-taking pressures near all-time highs were already significant; second, news of HBM4 capacity expansion slowing sparked concerns over its competitive position; additionally, analysts at Korea’s Hana Securities previously published a report warning that SK Hynix overtaking Samsung in market cap might mark the peak of the KOSPI bull market, comparing it to Cisco briefly topping the S&P 500 at the peak of the internet bubble in 2000. While most analysts do not find this analogy apt, the discussion has still weighed on market sentiment.

The macro environment is also providing a negative backdrop: the Nasdaq fell 1.3% overnight, dragging down sentiment in the global semiconductor sector; the KOSPI index fell over 5% intraday, triggering a brief circuit breaker. Meanwhile, reports that Korea will not be included in the upcoming MSCI developed markets review further undermined market confidence.

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