Space Photovoltaics: Reliable Extraterrestrial Energy Targeting a Trillion-Dollar Market

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As reusable rocket technology matures and drives a dramatic decline in launch costs, commercial spaceflight is witnessing a "Moore's Law" moment, which in turn has triggered massive demand for the core component of space infrastructure—space photovoltaics.

According to a deep industry report published by the Dongwu Securities team led by Zeng Duohong on the 6th, the number of global spacecraft launches will exceed 4,300 in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, with a compound growth rate of 34% over the past decade. Driven by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) frequency and orbit resource rules of "first-come, first-served," the global deployment of low Earth orbit satellites is entering a boom period.

By the end of 2025, over 100,000 satellites have been filed globally, with the U.S. dominated by Starlink and China submitting more than 51,000 satellites through the GW, Qianfan, and other plans. The construction of massive satellite constellations will directly translate into rigid demand for high-performance photovoltaic cells. If we assume 10,000 satellites launched per year, this could create nearly 200 billion yuan in solar array market space.

This trend is reshaping the technical path and market structure of space photovoltaics. As low-orbit constellations evolve toward multi-functionality and increased payload capacity, single-satellite power requirements are rising sharply. For example, SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellite solar array area has increased more than tenfold compared to early versions. Simultaneously, the vision of migrating AI computing power to space is opening the industry's long-term ceiling. Constructing a "space data center" that leverages space's infinite energy and low-temperature cooling environment has become a new hot spot. If a 10 GW-level space computing system is built in the future, the solar array market size could reach trillions of yuan.

Declining Launch Costs and the Frequency/Orbit Resource Race

Dongwu Securities states that the rapid rise of commercial spaceflight is driven fundamentally by the exponential drop in launch costs. The maturity of reusable rocket technology has completely broken down the economic barrier to accessing space. SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cost has fallen to about $1,400-1,800/kg, far lower than traditional space launches. This cost dividend is pushing global space launch activities into an "exponential growth" cycle, with global spacecraft launches estimated to exceed 300 times in 2025, doubling from 2021.

Aside from economic drivers, the scarcity of strategic resources is also key to the accelerated deployments by various countries. Due to the "non-renewable" nature of near-Earth orbit frequencies and positions, and the ITU's strict time limits requiring the first satellite launch within 7 years of application and the entire constellation within 14 years, the race to seize orbital resources is more intense than ever. The U.S. currently leads in the number of launches and in-orbit quantities, while China is quickly catching up. With the advancement of large-scale constellation plans such as "Qianfan" and "GW," the launch of tens of thousands of satellites will become an inevitable industry trend.

Photovoltaics: The "Energy Heart" of the Satellite Value Chain

Within satellite systems, the power supply system occupies a pivotal position. Data shows that the power system accounts for about 20%-30% of the total satellite manufacturing cost, with solar arrays (space solar cell arrays) being the core for power generation and accounting for up to 60%-80% of the power system's value. This means that photovoltaic cells essentially determine the satellite's power-supply capability and output ceiling.

Dongwu Securities points out that with the upgrade of satellite payloads, especially the rising demands for communications and computing, spacecraft power requirements are steadily increasing, driving solar arrays toward larger areas and higher output. Taking SpaceX’s Starlink satellites as an example, their solar array area has grown from 22.68 square meters on the V1.5 version to 256.94 square meters on V3—an order-of-magnitude increase. Payload upgrades have driven the space photovoltaic industry from pure component manufacturing to a stage of simultaneous volume and price growth; large-area, high-efficiency solar wings have become critical resources in the commercial space race.

Technical Roadmap: The Game Between Cost and Performance

Dongwu Securities states that the current technology roadmap for space photovoltaics is characterized by diversified competition, fundamentally about balancing cost and performance.

Gallium Arsenide (GaAs): Currently the mainstream choice in China. Its advantages include high conversion efficiency (module efficiency can exceed 30%), strong radiation resistance, and good high-temperature stability—perfectly matched for long-life, highly reliable advanced missions. However, its drawbacks are high cost (about 200,000-400,000 yuan/square meter, estimated 1,200 yuan/W) and limited capacity, making it difficult to support the low-cost explosive demand for massive constellations.Crystalline Silicon Cells: SpaceX’s choice. Thanks to the very low launch cost, Starlink uses reinforced terrestrial-grade crystalline silicon cells with a lower cost, compensating for lower efficiency (about 20%) by increasing cell area. For operators with higher launch costs, the relatively poor specific power (power-to-weight ratio) of crystalline silicon cells is a main constraint.Perovskite and Tandem Technology: Potential disruptor for the future. Perovskite boasts an extremely high specific power (up to 30W/g), lightweight, and potential for low-cost manufacturing. Although its stability in extreme space environments still needs verification, perovskite-silicon tandem technology may break through efficiency bottlenecks and become a superior solution for space power supply.

Space Computing Power: Unlocking the Trillion-Level Long-Term Market

Beyond communication constellations, the space economy is extending into computing power and data centers. Dongwu Securities points out that the surge in AI computing power needs has brought enormous energy consumption and cooling challenges to terrestrial data centers, while space naturally offers a vacuum cooling environment and unlimited solar energy resources, making it an ideal location for high-performance computing nodes.

Currently, technical validation has started on projects including Beijing's "Chen Guang-1," Zhijiang Laboratory's "Three-Body Computing Constellation," and Guoxing Yuhang's "Star Computing Plan." Overseas, Musk has said Starship will realize gigawatt-class facilities in orbit, and Starcloud has proposed building a 5 GW orbital data center. The energy requirements of space computing far exceed those of traditional satellites. If 10 GW-level space computing deployment is realized in the future, according to current price systems, the solar array market size could reach the scale of trillions of yuan.

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