SpaceX conducts first Starship test flight after IPO launch, Musk's Mars plan faces a crucial test

SpaceX will conduct the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket tonight. This is the space giant's first major test since its IPO in June and marks a core step in Musk's plan to build a space data center, expand the Starlink network, and advance human moon and Mars missions.

The launch is scheduled for 5:45 PM local time on Thursday from the Starbase facility in southern Texas. This will be the second flight of the latest iteration, the V3 rocket, carrying upgraded Starlink satellites for a test mission.

Analysts generally believe that if the test flight succeeds, it will be a critical milestone for the SpaceX investment thesis and may pave the way for the next, first orbital flight.

However, the market backdrop for this flight is rather complex. Since the closing high on June 16, SpaceX shares have fallen by about one-third, with market capitalization evaporating by more than $860 billion, and on July 15 temporarily dropping below the IPO price. The Starship test flight outcome and the soon-to-be-released first quarterly report will be two key catalysts affecting share price movements.

Test Flight Mission: Second V3 Flight, Aimed at Full Reusability

This flight is the second appearance of the Starship V3 variant.

According to the flight plan, the Super Heavy booster will ignite 33 Raptor engines to bring Starship to near-orbital speed, then separate and attempt a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.

Starship will complete multiple tests in space, including re-igniting an engine and deploying 20 Starlink satellites. These satellites will unfold solar panels and attempt to connect to the Starlink network via laser communication, then burn up upon re-entry about 20 minutes later. The entire mission will end about one hour later with a Starship splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX’s core goal is to achieve full reusability for Starship, meaning both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft can return safely to Earth and be reused—an unprecedented technological breakthrough in the rocket industry. Musk previously predicted the V3 variant may achieve full reusability within the year. SpaceX has invested over $15 billion in Starship development.

Issues from Last Flight Addressed with Targeted Improvements

During the 12th test flight in May, Starship successfully deployed simulated satellites, but the booster experienced uncontrolled rotation and one engine shut down early.

SpaceX later issued a statement on its website, saying that hardware and software modifications had been made to address these problems.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale noted in a July 13th research report, "If SpaceX can keep all main engines operating normally, successfully execute planned re-ignition and landing procedures, and bring back more complete data on the heat shield and control surfaces, the 13th flight will represent a substantial improvement over the 12th flight."

He also emphasized that achieving commercial operations with Starship "is a key path for the SpaceX investment thesis.” Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann stated, if this flight succeeds, the company may attempt orbital insertion on the next flight for the first time.

NASA Contract in Hand, Manned Moon Landing Timeline Still Tight

Starship carries not only commercial ambitions but also a $4 billion NASA contract—SpaceX must use Starship for a crewed moon landing as early as 2028.

To achieve this, SpaceX must complete in-orbit refueling, conduct more than ten consecutive launches, and ensure the spacecraft meets crew safety standards. As of now, Starship has not accomplished a full orbital flight, and technical challenges remain significant.

The post-IPO honeymoon is over. SpaceX stock surged initially after going public but quickly pulled back, hitting an intraday low of $132.15 on July 15, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses. WallstreetCN previously reported that in the past week, about 37 million new short positions worth $5 billion were added, with mark-to-market profits reaching $3.88 billion. The 28% short interest is a historic high for newly listed companies in their first month.

The market currently faces two major pressures: first, the uncertainty of the Starship test flight results; second, the upcoming release of the first quarterly report will trigger some shareholder lockups to expire, possibly sending a large volume of shares into the market. Despite recent share price pressure, Wall Street analysts overall remain optimistic on the stock.

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