SpaceX countdown to IPO: Is global major IPO market’s success or failure hinging on this?

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SpaceX secretly filed for an IPO, seeking to raise over $50 billion, potentially valuing the company as high as $1.75 trillion and possibly surpassing Saudi Aramco as the largest IPO in history. This news has reignited hope in the global large IPO market, which has been quiet for years, but whether it can truly spark a new IPO boom remains debated among market participants.

A previous article by WallstreetCN mentioned that SpaceX has confidentially submitted its IPO application. If the offering is completed at this scale, it would far exceed Saudi Aramco's approximately $1.7 trillion IPO record in 2019, making it the largest stock offering in world history. After the news broke, market attention on this rocket company led by Musk soared, as investors are closely evaluating whether the public market can absorb such a large issuance.

Analysts point out that the SpaceX IPO would be a real stress test for the current public market’s capacity. If successful, it would send a clear signal to the market—that the window for large, highly-valued company IPOs has reopened, and could endorse other long-delayed mega-IPO projects. However, some believe that SpaceX is too unique, and its success may not revive the overall IPO market. It could even crowd out other issuers by drawing away massive funds and attention.

The Largest IPO in History on the Horizon

SpaceX is looking to raise $50 billion or more, with a potential valuation of about $1.75 trillion. Samuel Kerr, Global Head of Equities at Mergermarket, said, "At the scale currently discussed, SpaceX will be the largest IPO in history, bar none. This will be a true test of the public market's capacity amid real market volatility. But if any company can go public in such an environment, it is most likely SpaceX, because it has enormous market hype."

The last company to go public with a valuation over $1 trillion was Saudi Aramco in 2019. Since then, affected by rising interest rates, inflation pressure, and geopolitical tensions, the global large IPO market has been mired in years of stagnation, with many issuers choosing to wait and see, as the window has failed to open. The industry generally hopes for a full-scale revival of major IPO deals by 2026.

Valuation Logic: The "Rare Narrative" of Rockets, Satellites, and AI

Behind SpaceX’s high valuation lies multiple lines of business. According to a Reuters report this January citing insiders, SpaceX achieved revenues of about $15-16 billion last year, and profits of about $8 billion, a rare level of profitability among tech unicorns.

In February this year, Musk announced that SpaceX had completed the acquisition of his AI startup xAI, valuing SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion. According to Reuters, the merger brings together Starship launch services, Starlink satellite internet, and AI capabilities into a single entity.

Minmo Gahng, Assistant Professor of Finance at Cornell University, believes, "The integration of xAI allows Musk to package launch, Starlink, and AI into a single, rare super narrative. The valuation supported by this combination will be higher than the sum of their valuations if each business went public separately."

A Bellwether or a Flash in the Pan?

Whether SpaceX’s IPO can warm up the overall IPO market is sharply debated by analysts. IPOX Vice President Kat Liu holds an optimistic view, stating: "A successful SpaceX IPO could serve as a catalyst for other large IPOs, showing that the public market has the depth and willingness to absorb large, high-valuation offerings, and help validate pricing levels in the current late-stage private market."

However, Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economic Strategist at Annex Wealth Management, told Reuters that SpaceX’s case "could be a bellwether, or it could be a bad omen." He pointed out that enthusiasm around the company is enough to attract investors, but its uniqueness—especially given Musk’s celebrity effect—could actually draw market focus away from other aerospace stocks rather than lift the sector as a whole.

Samuel Kerr of Mergermarket also warned from a market capacity perspective: "SpaceX may take up too much market capacity, causing other major issuers to delay, unwilling to compete in the same issuance window."

Current Status of the IPO Market: Recovery Still Awaits Validation

According to current data, overall IPO market performance remains subpar. Indexes tracking major newly listed shares have consistently underperformed major benchmarks over the past 12 months, reflecting that investor enthusiasm for new stocks has not fully recovered.

At the same time, SpaceX is not the only mega-unicorn operating at near-public company scale. OpenAI, ByteDance, and other high-profile private firms have valuations comparable to top S&P 500 constituents, blurring the line between private and public markets. Once SpaceX goes public, it will directly enter the league of super-large-cap firms like Microsoft and Apple, competing for retail and institutional capital inflows.

Analysts generally believe that the outcome of SpaceX’s IPO will provide an important reference for other long-postponed large listing projects in capital-intensive industries—whether the result is reopening the market window or further postponing the IPO market’s recovery timetable.

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