SpaceX countdown to IPO, US stock index futures turn higher, space concept stocks generally rise pre-market, hope emerges for US-Iran agreement, Brent oil plunges 5%
The US and Iran have extended the ceasefire and returned to the negotiating table. Coupled with the approaching SpaceX IPO, dual positives are boosting market risk sentiment.
On Friday, US stock futures turned upward collectively. Before the US market opened, memory chip stocks fell, while space concept stocks generally rose. European stocks opened higher, Asia-Pacific stock markets were generally up, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rising about 2.7%, and Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 4.49%. However, due to news that global major investment banks are restricting hedge funds from leveraged bets on chip stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, some gains in the index were partially erased.
In the bond and currency sector, US Treasury yields generally moved lower, the US Dollar Index edged up 0.1%, and most non-US currencies were under pressure. In commodities, oil prices dropped over 5%, gold prices surged then fell back, with spot gold down 0.8% to around $4178/oz.
In geopolitics, according to Xinhua News Agency and Iran's Mehr News Agency on the 12th, new details of the US-Iran 14-point memorandum of understanding draft have been released, including the US pledging to lift sanctions, withdraw troops from around Iran, lift maritime blockades, open the Strait of Hormuz, and unfreeze Iran's frozen assets.
Ulrich Hofmann-Burkhardi, Global Chief Investment Officer for Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated: "Although the path to solving problems may not be smooth, our base expectation is that diplomacy will ultimately prevail, allowing investors to refocus on robust economic fundamentals and strong earnings growth."
Key market movements are as follows:
Dow Jones futures rose 0.5%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.05%. Before the US market opened, memory chip stocks fell, with Micron Technology down over 2%. US space concept stocks were generally up pre-market. Rocket Lab rose over 8%, ASTS rose over 5%, EchoStar Communications rose nearly 5%.
European indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 1.4%, France's CAC40 up 1.3%, Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.38%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.6%.
Nikkei 225 closed up 2.8% at 66,020.04 points. Japan's TOPIX closed up 1.3% at 3,881.96 points. Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed up 4.49% at 8,112.58 points.
The 10-year US Treasury yield was nearly unchanged at 4.47%.
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4178.86/oz. Spot silver's intraday drop widened to 2%, reported at $65.94/oz.
Brent crude fell below $87/barrel, reported at $86.97/barrel, nearly down 4% intraday.
Bitcoin price was nearly unchanged at $63,321.28. Ethereum fell 0.5% to $1,663.34.
US-Iran Signal Easing, Market Awaits SpaceX Listing
The US-Iran situation is cooling; market focus returns to fundamentals and the AI sector. According to reports, Trump said the agreement could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend, with Vice President Vance attending.
Influenced by these remarks, yields on various US government bonds fell across the board. Short-term interest rate contracts show that the timing for anticipated Fed rate hikes has been pushed from before December this year to the first quarter of 2027. Previously, the market had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike before December.
US stock futures showed mixed movements pre-market, as three factors suppressed risk sentiment: first, the US-Iran agreement is not yet finalized; second, global major investment banks have begun to restrict hedge funds from leveraged bets on Asia's top chip stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics; third, investors are staying on the sidelines ahead of SpaceX's record IPO.
Billy Leung, Investment Strategist at Global X Management, stated that after the largest IPO globally, the company's listing may ease the "excess liquidity" problem that has plagued the market—this was also a reason for this week's tech stock pullback. He noted that, historically, after a major IPO lands, market risk sentiment usually improves in the short term.
Korean Stocks Surge Over 4%, Gains Narrowed by Leverage Restrictions
The Korea Seoul Composite Index closed up 4.49% at 8,112.58 points. During the session, a 5% rise in KOSPI 200 futures triggered the circuit breaker mechanism, and the exchange suspended algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. However, due to news that global major investment banks cut leveraged bets on Asia's top chipmakers (including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics), some gains in the index were later trimmed.
According to Bloomberg on Friday, major brokers such as Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BNP Paribas, and UBS have all increased related financing costs and tightened the size and entry requirements for new swap contracts.
Geopolitical Premium Recedes: Strait Negotiations Push Oil and Gold Lower
US-Iran talks about transit arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz have eased market concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushed oil prices lower. Easing geopolitical tensions simultaneously weakened gold's safe-haven demand, dragging gold prices down.
According to the US Axios news site on the 11th, citing sources, the "about to be signed" US-Iran memorandum mentioned by President Trump includes an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees and sanctions relief for Iran based on compliance.
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