SpaceX IPO countdown: Analyst meeting to be held this week, valuation of 1.75 trillion to be tested

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SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans at an unprecedented pace. The space company under Elon Musk held a three-day closed-door analyst meeting this week, with only about two months left until the targeted listing window at the end of June. A fundraising move that could break global IPO records has entered a critical stage.

According to media reports citing three insiders, the itinerary spanned SpaceX’s Starbase launch site in Texas and its data center in Memphis, Tennessee, covering space, satellite, and AI infrastructure businesses. SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation—which, if successful, will be the largest IPO in history.

However, a tricky valuation challenge stands in the way of this fundraising. In February this year, Musk merged xAI with SpaceX, integrating rockets, Starlink satellites, the X social platform, and the Grok AI chatbot into one entity—a precedent-setting tech-space conglomerate that makes traditional pricing frameworks difficult to apply. Some institutional investors have started to use AI infrastructure firms like Palantir and GE Vernova as valuation benchmarks, rather than traditional peers such as Boeing or AT&T.

Meanwhile, Musk has set aside about 30% of shares for retail investors, and opened subscription channels to retail buyers in the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, aiming to build a broader investor base for this historic IPO.

Three-Day Closed-Door Meeting: Full-Speed IPO Progress

The analyst meeting kicked off Tuesday with a full day of tours and briefings at the Boca Chica Starbase in Texas. On Wednesday, another group of analysts representing institutional investors like mutual funds and pension plans attended separate briefings at Starbase. On Thursday, participating analysts were invited to the Colossus data center in Memphis to learn about the company's project code-named "Macrohard."

Notably, according to media reports citing insiders, attendees were required to hand over electronic devices before entering the venue. All three insiders requested anonymity since the information is not yet public, and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.

About two weeks after the analyst meeting, SpaceX is also expected to hold a dedicated "Modeling Day" for select Wall Street analysts—some of whom work for banks involved in underwriting the IPO. At that time, the company will provide analysts with detailed financial forecasts, business logic, and key data to help them build earnings models prior to the IPO. Some invited analysts have already received SpaceX’s confidential registration documents, but according to insiders, these contain limited information.

Valuation Dilemma: How to Justify the $1.75 Trillion Figure

For SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen, the next two months or so are a decisive window—he needs to convince top Wall Street analysts and eventual investors that this company is worth the nearly unimaginable $1.75 trillion.

In February, the merger of xAI and SpaceX combined Musk’s rocket business, Starlink satellite internet, the X social media platform, and the Grok AI chatbot into a brand-new tech-space conglomerate—virtually unprecedented in business history. That’s precisely why valuing the company is so complex.

At least one major institutional investor looking for a valuation benchmark has abandoned comparisons with traditional aerospace and telecom giants like Boeing or AT&T, instead using Palantir Technologies and AI infrastructure companies such as GE Vernova and Vertiv to support the justification for the $75 billion fundraising and sky-high valuation.

Retail Participation: Musk’s 30% Allocation Plan

Beyond the institutional roadshow, Musk is making retail investors a core part of the IPO’s arrangements. He plans to allocate about 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors, and after the roadshow launches the week of June 8, will invite 1,500 retail investors to tour Starbase.

Musk also plans to open subscription access to retail investors in the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, further expanding the deal’s geographic reach. However, the final deal structure and exact retail allocation ratios will be confirmed before the official start of the IPO.

For underwriting, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs serve as lead bookrunners, with another 16 banks participating in smaller roles, covering institutional, retail, and international channels.

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