SpaceX submits IPO prospectus: Orbital computing satellites to be deployed in 2028, Musk's incentives tied to a population of one million on Mars

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SpaceX officially moves toward the public market, and its IPO prospectus reveals an ambitious business blueprint.

According to the prospectus on May 20, SpaceX’s core business Starlink has reached 10 million subscribers, with annual revenue exceeding $11 billion. The company plans to deploy an orbital AI computing satellite constellation in 2028 and is laying out infrastructure for the Moon and Mars.

In addition, Musk’s restricted stock rewards are directly linked to SpaceX’s valuation milestones, as well as to progress in establishing a permanent human colony on Mars, with the ultimate trigger being the colony having at least 1 million residents.

This arrangement means whether Musk can finally realize his largest equity payout depends on whether humanity can truly achieve interplanetary settlement.

For the market, the core suspense of this IPO is the rationality of its valuation. If it launches at a $1.5 trillion valuation, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio will reach 80 times, far exceeding the overall level of about 7 times sales for the top 15 U.S. companies, while the company’s net loss in 2025 will be as high as $4.9 billion.

Starlink supports the revenue base, subscribers double in a year

Starlink is currently the core business supporting SpaceX’s financial performance.

The prospectus shows that as of the end of March 2025, Starlink’s satellite internet service had about 10 million subscribers, doubling from a year earlier.

The department including Starlink broadband recorded over $11 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for the vast majority of the company’s total revenue of about $18.7 billion.

SpaceX lists telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon as competitors in its prospectus and says Starlink is expected to capture a greater share of the high-speed internet market from these companies.

The company currently has about 10,000 satellites in low Earth orbit and emphasizes that "Starlink can provide broadband connectivity to any location on Earth."

Orbital AI computing satellite constellation, earliest deployment in 2028

Aside from Starlink, SpaceX positions orbital AI computing satellites as its next major growth driver in the prospectus, planning to begin deployment as soon as 2028. The company writes in the prospectus:

Orbital AI computing is an extremely challenging technical problem, and we believe we are the only company with a commercially viable path to build orbital AI computing capabilities at scale.

The prospectus shows that achieving this goal depends critically on Starship rockets meeting their performance targets to enable economically viable orbital deployment.

The funds raised this time will be used for AI computing infrastructure construction, satellite launches, and related business expansion.

Additionally, SpaceX also discloses plans to establish manufacturing infrastructure on the Moon and Mars in the prospectus, further outlining its long-term interstellar trajectory.

Heavy financial losses, valuation logic tests investors

SpaceX’s financial situation stands out among ultra-high-value tech companies planning to go public.

In 2025, the company will achieve revenue of about $18.7 billion, but net losses are as high as $4.9 billion. By comparison, Meta with similar valuation had revenue over 11 times greater than SpaceX last year, with net profit reaching $60 billion.

If the IPO valuation ultimately exceeds $1.5 trillion, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio will be about 80 times, while the top 15 U.S. companies have an overall price-to-sales ratio of only about 7 times.

This pricing logic is quite similar to Musk’s other company, Tesla—though Tesla has very thin profits in 2025 due to massive investment in AI, humanoid robots, and Robotaxi, it still trades at a rolling P/E ratio of nearly 400.

Analysis suggests that investors betting on SpaceX or Tesla are essentially believing that Musk can convert today’s massive investments into enormous future value.

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