SpaceX surpasses Tesla on its first day of listing; SpaceX president hints at "merger," Tesla shareholders eagerly anticipate.

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SpaceX just went public, and its market value has already surpassed Tesla—while its president is hinting at a merger between the two companies.

On June 12 local time, SpaceX officially entered the U.S. stock market, becoming the largest IPO in history, with an issue price set at $135 per share. On its first trading day, the stock opened at $152, soared to a high of $173, and closed up by more than 30%, with a market value of about $2 trillion.

According to FactSet and Dow Jones market data, this market value is about 3% of the total U.S. stock market value of $75.6 trillion, making SpaceX leap into the sixth largest listed company in the U.S., surpassing Meta and Saudi Aramco, as well as Musk's other company Tesla (current market value about $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion).

On this very day, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell gave a thought-provoking answer when asked by the media about the possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

What Shotwell said—and didn’t say

Shotwell said, "This might make Musk's life a bit easier."

She further stated, "There is undoubtedly synergy between Tesla and SpaceX, and there is indeed a convergence in our future directions—we are working towards things that are coming together."

But she also pumped the brakes: "Right now, my focus is on keeping SpaceX's lights on. That part of the future, at least for now, is not my concern."

The takeaway from her remarks: Shotwell neither denied the possibility of a merger, nor gave any timetable. For the market, that is enough.

Collaboration between the two companies has long been evident. Tesla once purchased $506 million worth of SpaceX Megapack energy storage batteries, and $103 million in Cybertrucks for SpaceX campuses. The two also jointly launched a $55 billion "Terafab" chip factory to produce semiconductors for robots and space travel. Moreover, Tesla invested $2 billion in Musk's AI company xAI last year, and in February this year, after SpaceX acquired xAI (valued at $250 billion) in an all-stock deal, Tesla's investment automatically converted into about 19 million SpaceX shares.

Based on SpaceX's first day share price, the value of Tesla's stake is about $3.29 billion, with a paper gain of around 64%.

The market is already betting on a merger

This isn't just a casually mentioned topic.

Wedbush Securities senior analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote in his research report this week that he expects Tesla and SpaceX to merge next year, calling it a "holy grail" move—the merger would allow Musk to control a larger share of the AI economy. Ives estimates the probability of the two companies announcing a merger before the first half of 2027 to be 80% to 90%.

Prediction market data is even more intuitive: On the Kalshi platform, the price of contracts regarding "Tesla-SpaceX announcing a merger before May 2027" has jumped from 26% at the start of the year to 55%.

After SpaceX went public, more than 20 ETFs launched products linked to SpaceX within hours, highlighting the feverish market interest.

Musk has a precedent for integrating his companies. In 2016, Tesla acquired solar energy company SolarCity for $2.6 billion in stock; after acquiring Twitter, he merged it with xAI, valued at $50 billion; in February this year, SpaceX incorporated xAI and X under its banner.

Tesla investors: I won’t buy SpaceX, I’ll wait for the merger

Long-term Tesla investor, L&F Investor Services CEO Alexandra Merz spelled out her logic directly in a Bloomberg Television interview:

"I believe Tesla and SpaceX will merge. As an investor fully invested in Tesla, if I want to buy SpaceX, I’d have to sell Tesla, which I won’t do. So my strategy is to hold Tesla, and if I’m right, they’ll announce the merger in a few weeks and complete it by the first half of 2027."

Merz has nearly 240,000 followers on X, claims to hold "thousands of shares" in Tesla. Her logic represents the mindset of some Tesla shareholders: instead of buying SpaceX at a high price during the IPO, they prefer to hold on to Tesla and automatically own the merged entity after a merger.

Peter Diamandis, founder of the XPrize Foundation and other early SpaceX private investors share a similar view, believing Musk's eagerness for control will drive the merger, much like the logic behind SpaceX’s merger with xAI.

Merger logic and obstacles

By the numbers, the merged entity might have a market value exceeding $3 trillion, potentially surpassing Amazon and Microsoft to become the world's fourth largest company.

On governance, Musk holds about 85% of SpaceX voting rights, so resistance from the SpaceX board is almost zero. At Tesla, he currently owns about 13% of shares, but if Tesla’s compensation plan approved last November is fully realized, his shareholding could rise to about 25% over the next decade.

Experts told CNBC that since the two companies operate in different fields, regulatory obstacles to a merger are relatively limited. What’s truly complex are governance details: who becomes the parent company after the merger? How is the new company’s share price determined? How is the stock swap ratio set?

Some analysts remain cautious. Some warn that the merger could dilute Tesla shareholders by about 28%, which is worth attention.

Christian Garrett, managing partner at 137 Ventures and early SpaceX investor, defended Musk’s voting structure in a Bloomberg Television interview, stating this governance arrangement "brings stability to the company, which is exactly what you want when investing in projects pursuing intergenerational opportunities."

As for Musk himself, Shotwell gave her assessment: "Without Musk, the company obviously wouldn’t collapse, but it definitely wouldn’t be what it is today."

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