SpaceX volatility has decreased significantly, and Musk has once again boldly predicted that revenue will reach $3.5 trillion by 2033.

Musk said this Thursday that he expects SpaceX's annual revenue to reach $3.5 trillion by around 2033. This is seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of 2040.

Earlier this month, Musk also predicted that SpaceX's annual revenue would surpass $1 trillion by 2030, a year ahead of the company's pre-IPO forecast.

SpaceX's stock price has recently undergone a significant shift compared to its early IPO performance. Initially among the most volatile large-cap stocks, SpaceX's stock price has fluctuated within a narrow range of approximately $10 around $140 over the past three weeks. Implied volatility for options has decreased from over 120 before the earnings release to 57.

SpaceX shares rose 0.89% on Thursday, with Musk's comments triggering a slight increase in the stock price at the close.

Volatility plummeted, and the "hottest stocks" calmed down.

The volatility of SpaceX's stock price is undergoing a fundamental change.

According to ThinkOrSwim data, its implied volatility has dropped from over 120 before the earnings report to 57. If SpaceX had been included in the S&P 500 at its initial public offering, it would have been one of the most volatile stocks; at its current level, it wouldn't even rank among the top 25.

Noel Smith, founder and chief investment officer of options analytics firm Convex Asset Management, accurately predicted in June that SpaceX's volatility would fall sharply. He likened this phenomenon to "a wild man raised by wolves in the forest" integrating into city life—"SpaceX has now moved into the city."

The market believes that factors driving down volatility include: insiders and early investors choosing to hold their shares after the initial lock-up period expired, and the smoothing effect of passive allocation by index funds following SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 indices.

In the options market, bullish sentiment has recently prevailed in a battle between bulls and bears.

Currently, put options still slightly dominate the SpaceX options market's open interest structure. According to open interest data tracked by Barchart, the put/call ratio is 1.1, lower than the historical peak of 1.2 set on Monday.

However, trading volume this week has shifted towards call options. Of the approximately 500,000 SpaceX option contracts traded on Thursday, 335,000 were call options, of which about 168,000 were actively bought. In contrast, only 75,000 were actively bought put options.

The top seven most actively traded contracts by volume were all call options, with the most active being the contract with a strike price of $144 that expires this Friday—this trade would require the stock price to rise by about 3.5% this week to be profitable.

The weekly contract expiring on September 25 implies an expected volatility of approximately $16, or about 11%.

Analysts warn: Decreasing volatility does not necessarily mean cheaper options.

Despite the significant decline in implied volatility, analysts caution investors against interpreting it as a signal to enter long or short options markets.

SpaceX’s implied volatility is currently higher than the realized volatility of its stock price, meaning that the actual cost of options may not be as low as it appears.

"Compared to its own historical levels, it's the cheapest, but that doesn't tell us much," said Noel Smith. "I think current volatility is at a reasonable level, but if you force me to say something, at a volatility level of 54 or 55, I would still choose to sell volatility."

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