Spring Festival trading big red envelope: Besides AI, there's also consumption, renminbi...

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As the 2026 Chinese New Year approaches, China’s consumer market is sending out some positive signals. From the recent concentrated wave of flagship model releases in the domestic internet and AI industry, to the RMB breaking through the 6.9 mark on the 12th, the market is observing Chinese consumer sentiment and corporate pricing power during this crucial window period.

According to ZF Trading Desk, based on JP Morgan’s strategy around Chinese New Year and Bank of America’s latest consumer survey, the market is simultaneously trading three clues: structural recovery of consumption, risk appetite changes brought by a stronger RMB, and the redistribution of profit sheets caused by upstream cost increases. These three clues are not contradictory, but will make stock-picking logic in 2026 more “refined.”

Notably, the report also disclosed the AI usage among Chinese consumers: 39% of respondents use AI tools several times a week, 24% use them daily, mainly for shopping advice and itinerary planning. More than one-third say they save 3-5 hours weekly, another 32% save 6-10 hours.

Consumption: “More Rational Upgrading”

JP Morgan defines one of the main trading lines for Chinese New Year as “upside option for consumption,” with a core judgment: household balance sheets have been repairing since peaking in the first half of 2021, household leverage has dropped to slightly below 60% (as a percentage of GDP), “consumption capability” remains, but consumer mindset is more pragmatic—willing to pay for “quality” and “certainty of experience,” but more cautious about unnecessary impulsive spending.

This echoes the Bank of America survey: in February, 45% of respondents said their outings and spending increased over the past two months (38% in December), and 49% expect to increase spending in the next six months (30% in December). However, Bank of America emphasizes that this improvement is largely due to the seasonal effect of New Year and this year’s 9-day-long holiday boosting service consumption and travel.

It’s also worth noting that the “layering” of consumption continues. Bank of America notes that the incremental improvement in New Year consumption intentions mainly comes from high-income groups: of those earning over 500,000 yuan annually, 76% expect to spend more during New Year, while only 44% of low-income groups plan to do so. For companies, premiumization and value-for-money running in parallel will shape a more realistic market structure: firms that capture “premium upgrades” will quickly improve income quality.

JP Morgan listed typical goods and scenarios where consumers are willing to spend during Chinese New Year: high-end smartphones, baijiu (Chinese liquor), quality food and beverages, gold jewelry, travel. For example, Moutai’s wholesale prices rebounded before the holiday (JP Morgan cited data showing premium Feitian Moutai increased from about 1,495 yuan per bottle in mid-December to about 1,710 yuan per bottle at the end of January), driven by concentrated gifting and banquet demand and supply schedule adjustments.

Travel & Service Industry: Short Cycle Certainty, Beware of High Base

If the recovery in goods consumption is more “structured,” then the most certain part of service consumption remains travel. Bank of America surveys show that travel intentions for New Year are on the rise: domestic short-trip plans are up to 36% (25% last February), plans to visit Hong Kong/Macau have risen to 21%. JP Morgan also cited institutional forecasts saying non-commuter cross-county travel during the Spring Festival may reach 10.68 billion person-times (+11.7% year-on-year).

However, service consumption is not “one-way up.” JP Morgan made a more cautious call for New Year box office: given the high base in 2025 and a lack of blockbuster hits, 2026’s New Year box office may decline slightly year-on-year. This reminds us: the “holiday dividend” boosts travel directly, but for online entertainment and other substitutable consumption, marginal elasticity may not be as strong.

RMB: Risk Appetite “Tailwind,” but Highly Differentiated Profit Impact

JP Morgan’s key observation: RMB appreciation often correlates with lower Chinese asset risk premiums, historically providing a “tailwind” for Chinese stocks, especially benefiting growth and cyclical sectors. Statistics show that since late 2016, during periods of significant RMB appreciation against the dollar, the MSCI China index has risen considerably on average.

More importantly, JP Morgan sets the 2026 RMB trajectory as “moderate appreciation.” Under this assumption, the market sees two impacts:

• Valuation level: More stable exchange rate expectations help restore overseas investor willingness to allocate to RMB assets, usually seen first in relative returns of high-beta sectors.
• Profit level: Industry and company differences will magnify quickly. JP Morgan’s typical beneficiaries are airlines—because USD debt and jet fuel costs make profits highly elastic; most pressured will be manufacturing chains with high export share, low margins, and price sensitivity.

This is why JP Morgan emphasizes “stock picking needs to be more refined”: Facing RMB appreciation and rising costs, some firms can pass through (like segments in the Apple industry chain, automation, power batteries, etc.), while others are pressured (with JP Morgan naming concentrated stress in autos, consumer electronics, home appliances, etc.).

Rising Costs: Re-auditing “Pricing Power” Is Happening

Entering 2026, a new variable from 2025 is that price hikes for metals, chips, materials, etc. are becoming more “systemic.” JP Morgan listed copper, aluminum, lithium salts, DRAM and more, pointing to manufacturing cost-side pressure. For the market, this triggers a revaluation of corporate profit quality: Those with pricing power, product upgrades, overseas deployment and hedging ability will be more likely to guard their margins.

Notably, consumers’ “rational upgrades” intersect with the supply side’s “cost re-inflation”: On one hand, consumers care more about quality and experience, willing to pay for certainty; on the other, higher upstream costs make “low-price competition” business models harder to sustain. Combined, this may yield a positive outcome: if “quality consumption” spreads to high-frequency categories (food, condiments, dairy, etc.), JP Morgan believes this supports CPI, nominal growth and corporate EPS—an often underestimated variable in recent years of low inflation.

Comprehensive Assessment: After New Year, Three Market Questions Remain

Combining the two institutional viewpoints, New Year provides a “window of sentiment and data,” not the end of macro narrative. After the holiday, the market truly needs to verify three things:

1. Can consumption recovery extend from “holiday-driven” to “normalized upgrading” (in high-frequency data, watch the slope of catering, hotels, and travel; on companies, look for price increases and volume of new products).
2. Can RMB strength bring more sustained risk appetite improvement, and will foreign capital continue to flow back?
3. Will profit divergence under rising costs beat expectations—especially for autos, consumer electronics, home appliances, those “both price-challenged and material-dependent” sectors, the market may revise profit forecasts faster.

On the investment front, JP Morgan prefers to position for “upside option in consumption + services” ahead of New Year, emphasizing more refined selection around pricing power; Bofa’s survey points to a more realistic undertone: Consumption is improving, but still shows significant stratification and cautious asset allocation habits. Thus, the 2026 China asset narrative is likely “moderate recovery + structural differentiation,” rather than a full market driven by a single variable.

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The above精彩内容 came from ZF Trading Desk.

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