Starlink’s per-user revenue shrank by 18% in two years, SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation faces a test.

Starlink’s per-user revenue shrank by 18% in two years, SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation faces a test.

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More and more users, but each user is worth less and less—this is the contradiction investors must face before SpaceX's IPO sprint.

This data comes from the draft prospectus of SpaceX's IPO. According to documents newly obtained by The Information, the number of personal users for Starlink satellite internet service quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, but the monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) fell by 18% over the same period, from $99 to $81. SpaceX clearly states in the document that it expects this figure to continue to decline over the next few years.

This disclosure directly challenges previous market assessments of Starlink's commercial value. Morgan Stanley's 2024 research report estimated Starlink's ARPU at more than $170 per month—over double the actual figure. As SpaceX is preparing for the IPO, with an expected valuation of well over $1 trillion, Starlink's profit model will become a focal point for market scrutiny.

Scale for price: The cost of growth logic

The root cause of ARPU's decline lies in SpaceX's deliberate price reduction and expansion into broader markets.

Starlink's minimum package price in the U.S. has dropped from $120/month in 2023 to $50/month now. In some regions of Europe and Africa, prices are even lower. Meanwhile, SpaceX is giving away internet terminals for free in some areas—these terminals usually sell for hundreds of dollars.

SpaceX even ran a Super Bowl ad for Starlink this year, marking the first Super Bowl ad from a Musk company. The prospectus lists such marketing initiatives as core drivers of performance growth, stating, "Improving Starlink’s brand recognition" is "the primary driving factor for performance."

This "exchanging price for volume" logic is reflected in the financials: in 2025, Starlink personal users will reach 8.9 million, nearly triple the 2.3 million in 2023; total revenue will rise from $3.9 billion to $11.4 billion, nearly tripling.

But the problem is that the marginal benefits of scale expansion are decreasing—the spending power of new users is overall lower than early users.

Personal users are the main engine, enterprise segment is smaller

The prospectus divides Starlink broadband customers into two categories: personal users (including households and SMEs) and enterprise users (large clients with customized agreements such as governments, airlines, shipping companies, etc.).

The data shows that personal users are the larger and faster-growing business segment. In 2025, personal users will add about 4.5 million, driving about $2.4 billion in revenue growth; enterprise revenue growth is about $1.4 billion in the same period.

In 2025, personal users will contribute over 60% of Starlink’s revenue, and SpaceX expects personal users to "continue being the main driver of Starlink’s growth."

The prospectus also mentions another business—Starlink Mobile, which uses independent satellite clusters to supplement traditional cellular network coverage. The document says it "will become an important new source of revenue in the future," but does not disclose specific financial data.

Currently, SpaceX's exclusive partnership agreement with T-Mobile is worth about $100 million, paid over several years based on service milestones, and is a tiny fraction of Starlink's total revenue.

However, SpaceX is spending nearly $20 billion (including cash and stock) to acquire EchoStar’s spectrum assets in order to obtain the rights to operate Starlink Mobile’s spectrum; the transaction is expected to complete in 2027. This means that the commercialization progress of Starlink Mobile will directly affect whether this huge investment can be recovered.

Dual challenges of competition pressure and IPO valuation

External competition cannot be ignored. Amazon plans to launch its own low-Earth orbit satellite internet service later this year, which will exert direct price competition pressure on Starlink.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, with an expected valuation far exceeding $1 trillion. As Starlink is SpaceX’s largest source of revenue, the ongoing decline of its ARPU will inevitably be a core topic for investors and analysts to examine.

SpaceX spokesperson declined to comment on the above data.

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