Starship "Passes the Test Despite Damage"! SpaceX's Trillion-Dollar IPO Crucial Battle: The Market Trusts Musk Even More

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SpaceX's Starship 12th test flight failed to return fully successful, with the booster recovery ending in defeat, leaving a clear regret for this flight. But analysts and investors believe: this is already enough.

On May 22, SpaceX conducted Starship's 12th test flight at its Starbase in Texas, also the maiden flight of the V3 iteration. The spacecraft successfully deployed a batch of simulated satellites and achieved controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the "Super Heavy" booster recovery failed, falling into the Gulf of Mexico. According to reports, SpaceX's IPO roadshow is set to start on June 4. If the issuance goes smoothly, fundraising could reach up to $80 billion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO ever.

Analysts characterize this test as a "lukewarm success"—neither a total failure nor a complete breakthrough. After a seven-month hiatus since the last flight, the completion of this test itself carries significance in calming the markets. Mark Vena, CEO of SmartTech Research, said, "SpaceX doesn't need this flight to be perfect, it needs to prove that the upgraded vehicle is headed in the right direction, and investors largely see that."

The SpaceX IPO has ignited Wall Street's enthusiasm for space. On Tuesday, space infrastructure company Redwire's stock surged 31% intraday, closing up 26%. Firefly soared 19% after winning a NASA lunar contract. The BofA space basket stocks have soared 61% this year, Procure Space ETF is up nearly 69%, far outpacing the S&P 500's 9.8%. Investors are increasingly viewing SpaceX from a more macro perspective, positioning it as a future provider of AI infrastructure, but whether Starship can operate stably at a commercial scale remains the core point of contention.

"Lukewarm Success"

Since 2023, SpaceX's 12th Starship test has shown clear "mixed feelings".

On the positive side, the V3 version successfully completed the simulated satellite deployment mission and achieved controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. On the failed side, the "Super Heavy" booster, a core reusable component, did not manage controlled landing as planned, ultimately falling into the Gulf of Mexico.

Antoine Grenier, partner and head of space consulting business at Analysys Mason, described the "lukewarm success" as "a good result, maybe even the best". He explains, "A total failure would be tricky, while a full success would trigger an overheated market sentiment ahead of the IPO."

SpaceX has invested more than $15 billion in Starship R&D, aiming to build a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket with carrying capacity far beyond current launch systems. For now, this goal remains a "work in progress".

Key Window Before IPO

SpaceX had been dormant for seven months since the last Starship test. Analysts point out that this hiatus made completing the test before the IPO nearly a necessary choice.

Antoine Grenier said that failing to launch before the IPO "would raise more questions about the company's execution rhythm among investors". From this perspective, the completion of the test carries symbolic significance equal to the test results themselves.

Starship's strategic value is far beyond just launch business. SpaceX emphasized in its IPO filings that Starship is crucial for reducing launch costs, expanding the Starlink satellite internet business (currently the core cash source), as well as supporting orbital AI data center satellite deployment, crewed lunar missions, and even Mars exploration. Once the roadshow proceeds smoothly, the maximum $80 billion offering will surpass all previous IPO cases.

Bullish Logic: From Rocket to AI Infrastructure

Investor and analyst bullish sentiment has not been shaken significantly by flaws in the test, thanks to a more macro investment narrative.

James Bruegger, Chief Investment Officer of UK investment firm Seraphim Space, says, "Full reusability is the key to drastically reducing launch costs—that's the real value driver."

Investors are increasingly positioning SpaceX as a potential core provider of AI infrastructure, betting on orbital data centers, next-generation satellite constellations, and other space computing scenarios. Musk also endorsed his AI company xAI on Tuesday, saying the three-year-old company was still at the starting stage compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, and promised its models "will be excellent".

Jesse Nacht, a researcher at MarketVector Indexes, said, "This launch reduced the tail risks of Starship entering a failure cycle, but hasn't completely eliminated execution risk. Unless an extremely catastrophic accident occurs, I don't think market expectations will change much."

Execution Risks Remain

Despite overall bullish market sentiment, analysts generally stress that Starship is still far from stable and economical operation at commercial scale.

Austin Moeller, Executive Director of Equity Research at Canaccord Genuity, points out, "SpaceX clearly needs to demonstrate successful launches, payload deployment, orbit insertion as well as controlled landings of boosters and spacecraft, so the system can be scaled up to build orbital data center mega-constellations."

SpaceX also warns in its own IPO filings that delays in development or cost targets could increase operating costs, thus slowing the pace of next-generation satellite and AI infrastructure deployment. Some investors worry Starship could fall into a "repair-failure" cycle, never proving an end-to-end usable system.

For the market, this test provides incremental confidence, not decisive technological breakthroughs. Whether the booster can achieve stable recovery and quick reflight turnaround in subsequent flights will be the key observation for investors during the roadshow.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment goals, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this, responsibility is borne by oneself. ```