Starting next Thursday, a "data frenzy" will hit the U.S., which is crucial for the market.

Starting next Thursday, a "data frenzy" will hit the U.S., which is crucial for the market.

After the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a backlog of economic data will be released intensively, providing key references for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess economic conditions. The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a detailed timetable, and data releases will begin to roll out starting next Thursday.

During the shutdown, more than 30 important economic reports were forced to be postponed or cancelled, including core indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP. Although the upcoming data will provide some support for the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, economists note that the “fog” caused by the information gap will not dissipate quickly, and it will take time to fully absorb all the data.

Notably, the release of some key data remains uncertain. The U.S. Department of Labor has stated that it is still unclear whether the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) can be released on schedule, as about two-thirds of price data must be collected in the field and cannot be retroactively filled in afterward.

Intensive Release Timetable for Key Data Set

The Department of Commerce and Department of Labor have finalized the release schedule for backlogged data. On November 20, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm payroll report, and on November 21 it will release September real wage data.

The Department of Commerce announced that the revised Q3 GDP figure will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and the PCE Price Index for October.

Additionally, the international trade report for October will be released on December 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET (21:30 Beijing time), and on December 19 the Department of Commerce will release the final Q3 GDP figure.

According to Morgan Stanley forecasts, before the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 policy meeting, it will have access to complete data for September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary Q3 GDP figure. The key point is whether October and November employment reports can be released on time.

Data Void Casts Shadow Over Fed Decision-Making

The 43-day government shutdown created an unprecedented data void, affecting the Federal Reserve’s assessment of economic conditions. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk stated that the market was in a “very dark and foggy” state during the shutdown. Although the fog is lifting, it will not clear completely in the short term.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell insists that a rate cut in December is not a “foregone conclusion,” and the lack of data may affect the committee’s decision. He previously stated:

"What do you do when driving in the fog? You slow down."

Barclays economist Marc Giannoni points out that the Federal Open Market Committee currently has serious disagreements about the pace and timing of rate cuts. The absence of new data makes it hard for committee members to change their stance. If there is not enough data before the December meeting, it could lead to a "rather intense meeting."

Restoration of Some Core Indicators Uncertain

Although the September employment data will be released as scheduled, the October data faces challenges. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that October inflation and employment data are "very likely never" to be released, and any data that is published will be "permanently damaged."

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told the media:

"We will get half of the employment report. We’ll get the employment part, but not the unemployment rate. This is just for one month."

Former Bureau of Labor Statistics director McEntarfer noted that consumer price data faces even bigger challenges. About two-thirds of price data needs to be collected through in-person store visits and must be gathered in real time.

"You can’t walk into Costco in mid-November and ask about the price of a product in October. That’s why the October CPI can’t be done."

The data void will affect Social Security payments that are tied to inflation, as well as companies’ hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season. RBC economist Mike Reid said that businesses are already dealing with uncertainty from trade policy, consumer spending, and other factors, and it may take months for data to return to normal.

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