Storage frenzy! Goldman Sachs January channel survey: DRAM prices facing strong recent surge

If you are searching for a precise signal of the semiconductor cycle, Goldman Sachs’ Asia Pacific team has just released the DRAM market sentiment indicator for January 2026, which not only flashes a red "Buy" signal but also heralds the coming of a price storm. According to Chasewind Trading Desk, on January 23, Goldman Sachs' latest channel survey shows that DRAM contract prices are facing extremely strong upward momentum in the near term. The core logic is simple and straightforward: **spot prices have already generated a huge premium over contract prices—DDR4 spot premiums are as high as 172%.** Such a massive price gap is historically unsustainable, and the only way for convergence is for contract prices to catch up dramatically. Meanwhile, the AI server demand frenzy continues, coupled with explosive growth in Korean DRAM exports and Taiwanese related manufacturers’ revenues, Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish view on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. For investors, this means profit expectations for the memory chip sector may need further upward revisions, especially considering that customers have already started accepting more aggressive price hikes for the first quarter of 2026. ## Spot Market Soars: DDR4 Premium Rate Reaches 172% **Current market pricing has become seriously disconnected, indicating that contract prices must make major adjustments.** According to Goldman Sachs data, since the beginning of 2026, DDR5 spot prices have sharply rebounded; DDR4 spot prices have continued their surge since September 2024. > - **DDR5:** Current trading prices have a **76% premium** over December contract prices. > - **DDR4:** The premium is even more astonishing—**172%**. This massive "scissors difference" between spot and contract prices provides strong likelihood for a robust contract price increase. Markets are usually led by spot, with contracts following; this level of premium means downstream customers have almost no leverage at the negotiating table. ## AI Server Demand: Over 50% Growth for 13 Consecutive Months **Hardware demand continues to accelerate, driven by rack-level AI server shipments.** According to Goldman Sachs tracking of Taiwanese server ODMs (including Inventec, Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron): > - December monthly revenue for server ODMs surged **94% year-on-year**. > - This marks the **13th consecutive month** of >50% year-on-year high growth. > - As a leading indicator for the server market, ASPEED Technology (Aspeed—the world's largest BMC supplier) achieved 18% year-on-year growth in December 2025, even on a high base from December 2024 (that month’s growth was 131%). ## Manufacturer Revenue Explosion: Nanya Technology Revenue Soars 445% **If servers represent high-end demand, then the data from second-tier manufacturers confirms a widespread price surge.** Taiwanese DRAM supplier Nanya Technology’s revenue data is staggering: > - December revenue skyrocketed **445% year-on-year**. > - The manufacturer achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth for **five consecutive months**, with accelerating growth (+141%, +158%, +262%, +365%, +445% from August to December). > - This growth was mainly driven by strong DDR4 price increases. > - Additionally, Korean DRAM exports recorded a 72% year-on-year increase in December, confirming the macro trend of supply shortages pushing prices higher. ## Channel Feedback: Customers Forced to Accept Larger Price Hikes **The real 'Alpha' information comes from Goldman Sachs’ front-line channel checks.** In discussions with investors, market expectations for traditional storage price increases in Q1 2026 have continued to rise in recent weeks. > - **Key signal:** Specific clients in the mobile market have already started accepting Q1 2026 quotes. > - **Price hikes exceed expectations:** Both DRAM and NAND, the newly accepted price increases are **significantly higher** than agreements reached in Q4 2025. Goldman Sachs expects other clients to follow this trend and agree to sharply higher storage prices in Q1 2026. Combined with soaring spot prices, Wall Street’s current expectations for near-term storage prices and company profits may still be too low, with further upside potential. ## HBM & Valuation: Target Prices for Samsung & SK Hynix **Despite market disputes over HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) pricing, shipment growth remains robust.** Goldman Sachs notes that while consensus among sellers slightly lowered price outlook for SK Hynix’s HBM business this year over the past month, Goldman Sachs maintains its unique perspective: > - **Volume increase:** Goldman Sachs forecasts HBM shipment growth **9 percentage points** higher than consensus. > - **Price decrease:** Due to expected major price cuts for HBM3E 12-Hi, Goldman Sachs’ price forecast is 17 percentage points lower than consensus. **Investment ratings and target prices:** Based on the above fundamentals, Goldman Sachs maintains “Buy” ratings for Korea’s two giants: > - **Samsung Electronics:** 12-month target price **KRW 180,000**. Valuation logic is based on SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts), and even facing key downside risks (deteriorating supply-demand, OLED share loss), its Q1 2026 DRAM blended ASP is expected to grow about **50% quarter-on-quarter**. > - **SK Hynix:** 12-month target price **KRW 700,000**. Goldman Sachs gives SK a 30% AI premium over Samsung, with target P/B set at 2.8x, referencing peak levels in the strong 2009–2010 upcycle. From extreme spot premiums to surging ODM revenues, all signs point to the memory industry’s “super cycle” still accelerating. For investors, the key issue is no longer whether price increases will happen, but how high this wave will push relevant company share prices. Risk Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the individual investor’s specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. 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