Strait of Hormuz negotiable, nuclear issue hard to resolve? US and Iran may turn to “interim memorandum + 60-day ceasefire extension”

The US-Iran negotiations are quietly lowering their goals as core differences remain unresolved—shifting from seeking a comprehensive peace agreement to using a temporary memorandum to prevent renewed conflict.

According to the latest media reports, two Iranian sources revealed that the talks held last weekend in Islamabad failed to achieve substantial breakthroughs, and the differences over key issues of Iran’s nuclear program remain profound.

Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, Trump publicly stated on the 16th that the US has obtained a “weighty statement” to ensure Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, with an effective period exceeding 20 years, and also claimed that “Iran has agreed to almost all demands,” adding that the prospects for an agreement "look very optimistic."

However, according to CCTV News, Iran has not responded to this, and Iranian President Pezehkiyan emphasized the same day that due to multiple US breaches, the Iranian people have "completely lost trust" in the US.

This gap in statements reflects the true situation of the negotiations: the parties have achieved limited proximity on topics like the control of the Strait of Hormuz, but the year limit of enrichment and disposal of high-enriched uranium stockpiles remain "core obstacles." If a temporary memorandum is reached, both sides are expected to have 60 days to negotiate a final agreement. This development has a direct impact on global energy markets—the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world’s oil and gas transportation and has been closed to most ships for several weeks.

Lowered Negotiation Goals: From Comprehensive Agreement to Temporary Memorandum

According to media citing two Iranian sources, the direction of the US-Iran negotiations has changed substantially. Both sides have abandoned the goal of reaching a comprehensive peace agreement during the current ceasefire window, instead seeking to sign a temporary memorandum to prevent renewed conflict after the two-week ceasefire period ends.

The ceasefire has now passed its halfway point, and time pressure is rising. Iranian sources said that if the temporary memorandum is reached, both sides will have 60 days to negotiate a final agreement, which will require deep involvement from nuclear experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This adjustment of the negotiation framework is closely linked to Pakistan’s mediation efforts. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Munir arrived in Tehran on the 15th and was received by Iranian President Pezehkiyan on the 16th. Pezehkiyan said Pakistan has played an “effective and responsible role” in promoting the ceasefire and emphasized that regional security should be guaranteed by regional countries themselves. Munir stated that through continued diplomatic efforts, the US and Iran are expected to reach an agreement and end the war as soon as possible.

The Strait of Hormuz: Limited Breakthrough in Negotiations

Amid many differences, the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz has become the area closest to consensus. According to the media, an Iranian senior official said Iran hopes the memorandum will include US terms to unfreeze part of Iran’s assets, in exchange for allowing more ships to pass through the strait.

Another source familiar with Tehran’s stance revealed that Iran has proposed in the negotiations that, should a lasting agreement be reached, ships may be allowed to freely pass through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz without the threat of attack.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to most ships for several weeks, and this waterway is responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil and gas transportation. The strait’s passage status has a direct impact on international energy markets. The loosening of the strait control issue is seen as one of the few topics in the current negotiations that could result in a phased achievement.

Nuclear Issue: Dual Deadlocks of Term and Stockpile

The nuclear issue remains the hardest barrier to overcome in the negotiations. According to media citing Iranian sources, the US demands that Iran halt nuclear enrichment for 20 years, whereas Iran is only willing to accept a 3–5 year suspension. Tehran also requires the US to provide a timeline for lifting UN, US, and EU sanctions.

Disposition of high-enriched uranium (HEU) stockpiles is also stuck. The US demands that Iran move all its 60% enriched uranium stockpiles abroad, but Iran so far refuses this demand. However, Iranian sources disclosed signs of compromise—Iran may be willing to transfer part of its HEU to a third country, but on the condition that it retains about 20% enriched uranium for medical use and the Tehran research reactor.

IAEA data shows that in June 2025, when Israel and the US first struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran held about 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said in March that the current stockpile is "mainly" stored in a tunnel complex in Isfahan, estimated slightly over 200 kg, with some also stored at the Natanz nuclear facility. A Western diplomat warned, "440 kg of highly enriched uranium remains highly concerning, enough for Iran to make several nuclear bombs in a rather short period."

Another Western diplomat bluntly stated that the nuclear issue "remains a core obstacle."

Trump’s Optimism Versus Tehran’s Trust Deficit

There is a clear gap between Trump’s public statements on the 16th and actual progress at the negotiation table. According to CCTV News, Trump said the US had obtained a “weighty statement” ensuring Iran does not have nuclear weapons, valid for over 20 years, and declared “Iran has agreed to nearly all demands,” adding that prospects for an agreement "look very optimistic."

Iran has not officially responded to this. But Pezehkiyan’s statement that day was telling—when meeting with Munir, he emphasized that due to multiple US breaches, the Iranian people have "completely lost trust" in the US. This contrasts sharply with Trump’s optimistic tone and echoes the historical background of the 2015 nuclear agreement unilaterally scrapped by Trump in 2018.

Whether even a temporary framework can be formed before the end of the ceasefire period remains the core variable most watched by the current market.

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