Strait of Hormuz "reopened"? The US and Iran "each have their own version"! Oil prices plunge in response, but tankers are "sceptical"

Oil prices plunged over 9% in a single day, but the tankers lingering at the mouth of the strait are expressing doubts through their actions.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on April 17 local time, Iran's Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that, in light of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire. Trump immediately confirmed this on social media, writing: "Iran just announced that the Iranian strait is now fully open and passage is allowed. Thank you!"

With this news, the market responded dramatically. Brent crude oil closed down 9.1% to $90.38 a barrel, hitting a five-week low; European natural gas prices fell 7%. U.S. stocks rose in tandem, with the S&P 500 up 1.2%, marking a third consecutive week of gains—the index has rebounded over 9% since April.

However, the actual situation in the strait is far more complicated than the statement suggests.

Tankers in Doubt: Heading Toward the Strait, Then Turning Back

After the news was released, a key observation window appeared in the market—the actual movements of the oil tankers.

According to Bloomberg, within hours after Iran's foreign minister announced the opening, at least 8 tankers quickly headed to the Strait of Hormuz. Of these, 5 had previously been anchored north of Dubai and began entering the strait channel on Friday afternoon after the news broke. Another 3 ships waiting about 70 miles away began moving towards the strait.

The report stated: If these ships continue their journey, their movements will be one of the clearest signals of the Strait of Hormuz being open to non-Iranian related vessels since the war broke out on February 28.

The UK Financial Times described that satellite tracking shows at least 25 ships heading toward the strait, including three container ships from French shipping company CMA CGM, four Greek tankers, and several Chinese vessels.

However, among the ships that set off after Iran's announcement, at least 12 turned back halfway, and several other vessels, including one from CMA CGM, stopped at the entrance of the strait.

Several oil and shipping executives said the situation remains unclear, with concerns about possible mines or continued Iranian control prompting some Western ships to prepare to withdraw from the Gulf.

Phillip Belcher, maritime director at the tanker association Intertanko, commented: "Before any transit resumes, the industry needs clear, verified information from Iran and a clear statement of measures taken by the U.S."

Kpler energy analyst Matt Smith bluntly said: "Iranian authorities still look like gatekeepers, picking which vessels can pass through the strait."

The Strait of Hormuz previously carried about one-fifth of global oil transport. The blockade has lasted about seven weeks, causing intense volatility in global energy markets.

Iran: Conditional, Temporary Opening

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy Headquarters promptly issued new vessel passage regulations on the evening of the 17th, stating three points: First, civilian vessels must follow Iranian-designated routes; second, military vessels are still prohibited; third, all vessels must coordinate with the Revolutionary Guard Navy in advance.

The spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Defense subsequently further narrowed the terms, stating that the Strait of Hormuz "is only conditionally open during the ceasefire period, vessels affiliated with hostile forces cannot transit, and if Lebanon comes under pressure, the situation will revert to its previous state."

This means Iran's "opening" comes with clear prerequisites and time limits—the ceasefire agreement expires this Tuesday night.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Directly Rebuts Trump

A bigger variable comes from the hardline voices within Iran.

Iran's Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on the X platform, directly refuting Trump's statements: "The U.S. president posted seven statements within an hour, all of which are false."

He made it clear: If the U.S. maritime blockade continues, the strait "will not remain open."

Trump himself also admitted he ordered maritime blockades on Iranian ports this week, and these will remain until an agreement is reached to end the war.

This creates a direct conflict: Iran views the U.S. blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. According to Xinhua citing Tasnim News Agency, a source said if the blockade continues, Iran will close the strait.

How Markets Price This Uncertainty

The plunge in oil prices reflects the market's initial reaction to the "opening" news, but analysts are cautious about future trends.

Rapidan Energy Group, an energy research organization, said in a report it is skeptical about signs of the U.S. and Iran nearing an agreement, predicting that at least until the end of April, tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at a very low level.

The agency noted: "Iranian negotiators insist Iran must retain control over passage through Hormuz. For the Trump administration, this is an unacceptable bottom line. The differences in the terms of the nuclear agreement are likewise stark."

In other words, the market has priced in the "opening," but whether transit can actually resume still depends on an unresolved political deadlock.

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