Strait of Hormuz Situation: Nearly stagnant for 7 consecutive days, only Iranian vessels passed through in the past 24 hours

The commercial shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is continuing to deepen.

On March 9, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, this most important global energy corridor has been in a "near standstill" for the seventh consecutive day. In the past 24 hours, only one Iran-related bulk carrier exited the Persian Gulf, and no ships entered from the opposite direction. The last commercial vessel not obviously connected to Iran—the Chinese bulk carrier "Sino Ocean"—completed its crossing last Saturday morning.

According to a Wallstreetcn article, when this ship passed through the narrowest part of the strait, it broadcast the signal "CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW," becoming the second vessel after "Iron Lady" to cross with a "Chinese shipowner" identity tag. But this case is still rare, with no additional Chinese cargo ships following this navigation scheme.

The effect of the strait blockade is rapidly propagating along the supply chain. According to Bloomberg, since oil tankers cannot move normally in and out of the Persian Gulf, coastal oil storage tanks are continuously piling up, causing some refineries to reduce capacity. Iraq has been forced to cut oil production, and Kuwait and the UAE are following suit. As of last Friday, only nine idle supertankers remain inside the gulf.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is switching crude exports to the Red Sea route. In the first seven days of March, the number of supertankers loaded at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz terminals on the Red Sea coast has hit a historical record. However, analysts warn that there is significant uncertainty as to whether this alternative route can continue to function.

Only Iranian vessels are passing—the commercial shipping is essentially suspended

According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, during the latest observation window, only one Iran-related bulk carrier exited the Persian Gulf in the past 24 hours, and no ships entered from the Oman Sea direction. This means the Strait of Hormuz has essentially ceased two-way commercial passage.

Missile and drone attacks on merchant ships are the direct trigger for the shipping standstill. Bloomberg notes that such activity continues to pose "critical risks" to all nearby vessels, and this security threat has led the vast majority of commercial shipowners to avoid the strait.

According to a Wallstreetcn article, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) reported on March 6 that only two confirmed commercial sailings occurred in the past 24 hours, both of which were bulk carriers and not tankers, with passage volume reduced to single digits. Lloyd's Market Association data shows that about 1,000 ships with a total value of about $25 billion are still trapped in the gulf and surrounding waters, most waiting and observing.

It is worth noting, Bloomberg cautions, that due to widespread signal interference and transponder shutdowns in the area, real-time ship tracking near the Strait of Hormuz faces great difficulty—ship locations often cannot be confirmed until days later when they reappear in satellite signals; thus actual passage volume may be somewhat underestimated.

"Chinese identity" becomes a passage certificate, but few are following

According to a Wallstreetcn article, in rare successful crossing cases, "Chinese identity" tags are becoming a means for some ships to try to avoid risk.

According to a Jiefang Daily report, on March 5 Beijing time, the bulk carrier "Iron Lady" changed its transponder signal to "China Owner," successfully crossing the strait along the Omani coast.

Next, the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier "Sino Ocean" adopted the same strategy on the morning of March 7, broadcasting the "CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW" signal continuously through the narrowest part of the strait, becoming the second ship to use this method for crossing.

This practice is provoking imitation in the commercial shipping industry. According to media citing analysis of Marine Traffic data, at least 10 ships in the past week have already changed their transponder signals to declare a connection to China externally, covering various types such as container ships and tankers.

Matthew Wright, an analyst with shipping data company Kpler, pointed out, "They can change almost anything, fill in whatever they want. The crew tries to hide their ties to specific ports, destinations, or nationality, which carries some element of deception."

He also noted that this identity-masking risk avoidance is not new and can be traced back to the 2023 Red Sea crisis and Houthi attacks on merchant ships.

Although the "Iron Lady" successfully passed, according to Jiefang Daily’s report on the afternoon of March 7, this remains a minority case with no more Chinese cargo ships following the navigation scheme.

Saudi Red Sea exports set records, but alternative route faces hidden risks

Facing a blocked Persian Gulf export channel, Saudi Arabia is actively adopting alternative routes.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is moving crude east-west through pipelines to the Red Sea coast. In the first seven days of March, Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz terminals loaded eight supertankers, each with a capacity of about 2 million barrels. If Saudi Arabia maintains this loading pace for the rest of the month, monthly exports will reach about 2.3 million barrels per day, about 50% higher than any single month's Red Sea export volume since the end of 2016.

Saudi Aramco data shows the east-west pipeline’s rated throughput is about 7 million barrels per day, though actual pre-war throughput was less than half that; theoretically, there is about 5 million barrels per day of extra capacity. However, this alternative route faces two major potential obstacles:

First, the facilities have never reached nameplate capacity, and it's uncertain whether they can maintain the current high-intensity operation long term.

Second, Saudi crude’s main buyers are in Asia, yet most shipments from Yanbu go north toward the Suez Canal, and very few cargoes head south to Asia—in fact, so far this month only one supertanker, "Arsan," left Yanbu southbound for Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi forces have threatened to resume attacks on southern Red Sea shipping after US and Israeli strikes against Iran, casting doubt on the Red Sea route’s own security.

Goldman Sachs estimates that in the past four days, only about 900,000 barrels per day have been rerouted through the pipeline and Yanbu/Fujairah ports, far below the theorized alternative capacity of 3.6 million barrels per day.

Goldman also warns that attacks this week on Fujairah port and oil storage facilities, local marine fuel shortages (which are usually imported via Hormuz from the gulf), and previous pipeline attacks all pose downside risks to rerouting flows.

Supply chain pressure continues to build

Continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is causing chain reactions along the energy supply chain.

According to Bloomberg, as tankers can no longer move in and out of the Persian Gulf normally, coastal oil storage tanks keep accumulating, forcing some refineries to cut capacity. Iraq has already begun to reduce oil production, with Kuwait and UAE following suit. As of last Friday, only nine idle supertankers remained inside the Persian Gulf, available shipping capacity is extremely tight.

From a more macro perspective, the Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil trade flows, and its continued standstill for the global energy market cannot be underestimated.

Although Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea alternative exports provide some buffer, Goldman’s calculations show a huge gap between actual rerouting and theoretical potential, and with security threats to the Red Sea route itself, the effective substitution for global oil supply remains very limited.

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