Strong demand! iPhone 17 pre-order delivery times on the first day are longer than those for iPhone 16, especially in the Chinese market.
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The iPhone 17 series pre-orders show strong demand signals, with Apple’s new flagship models seeing generally longer delivery times compared to the previous generation in most global markets, a phenomenon especially apparent in the Chinese market.
On September 16, according to Zhui Feng Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs’ latest research report states that, despite reports of increased production, data analysis shows that iPhone 17 series delivery times are significantly longer than those of the iPhone 16.
Goldman Sachs states that, based on Apple.com pre-order data tracked by the firm, globally, all iPhone 17 models have longer delivery times compared to their predecessors, with the standard and Pro Max models seeing the largest increases, each with an additional 8 days in delivery times. The Chinese mainland market is especially notable, with average delivery times increasing by 17 days, resulting in a 27-day waiting period.
Earlier, analysts reported that planned production for the iPhone 17 standard, Pro, and Pro Max models would increase 25% year-on-year, while production of the iPhone Air would be three times that of the iPhone 16 Plus. Against the backdrop of increased production, delivery times are still being extended, indicating very strong pre-order demand.
The research report points out that the strong pre-order demand signals support Goldman Sachs’ expectation of 8% iPhone revenue growth for Apple in the fourth fiscal quarter. Meanwhile, as Apple’s channel inventory was at the lower end of the target range at the end of the third fiscal quarter, channel restocking will further drive performance growth. Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating for Apple, with a target price of $266, more than 10% above the current price.
Significant Extension in Global Delivery Times
According to Goldman Sachs’ pre-order tracking data, the iPhone 17 series performed significantly better on its first day of pre-sales compared to the previous generation. A comparison of Apple.com’s global delivery times finds that:
iPhone 17 Standard Edition: Delivery time is 8 days longer than that of iPhone 16 Standard Edition.
iPhone 17 Air Edition: Delivery time is 3 days longer than iPhone 16 Plus Edition.
iPhone 17 Pro Edition: Delivery time is 3 days longer than iPhone 16 Pro Edition.
iPhone 17 Pro Max Edition: Delivery time is 8 days longer than iPhone 16 Pro Max Edition.
It is worth noting that even on the fourth day after pre-orders opened (September 15), delivery times remained high, further confirming the sustained demand, not just an initial surge on the first day.
China Leads in Market Demand
Goldman Sachs states that, viewed from a regional market perspective, Mainland China is undoubtedly the brightest star in this iPhone 17 pre-sale cycle.
Data shows that on the first day of pre-orders, the average delivery time in Mainland China rocketed from 10 days for the iPhone 16 to 27 days, a net increase of 17 days, leading all tracked markets in growth.
Other major markets also performed strongly:
United Kingdom: Average delivery time increases by 8 days, reaching 18 days.
India: Average delivery time increases by 3 days, reaching 13 days.
United States: Average delivery time increases by 3 days.
Hong Kong (China): Average delivery time increases by 1 day, reaching 13 days.
Japan is the only region where delivery times have eased, dropping from 29 days last year to 23 days.
In terms of models, the high-end Pro series remains the consumer’s top choice. According to Canalys’ report on iPhone 16 sales to date, the Pro and Pro Max models account for 33% and 36% of sales respectively.
This pre-order trend continues with the iPhone 17, with delivery times for the Pro and Pro Max significantly longer than those for the Standard and Air editions, especially in China, where by day four of pre-orders, the delivery time for the Standard, Pro, and Pro Max editions was around five weeks.
Strong Demand Despite Increased Production
According to the research report, the most exciting point for the market is that the extended delivery times are occurring even after Apple has substantially increased production capacity.
According to well-known tech analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, citing media reports, compared with the iPhone 16:
Planned production for the iPhone 17 Standard, Pro, and Pro Max models is up 25% year-on-year.
Production of the iPhone 17 Air is three times that of the iPhone 16 Plus.
Goldman Sachs states that such significant supply growth should have shortened consumer wait times. However, in reality, delivery times have increased instead. This phenomenon can only point to one conclusion:
The actual market demand growth for the iPhone 17 has already far outpaced the production capacity growth of Apple’s supply chain.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe this strong pre-order trend supports their forecast for 8% iPhone revenue growth in Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, which will also benefit from some channel restocking, as Apple’s channel inventory was at the low end of its target range at the end of Q3 fiscal year 2025.
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