Strong earnings combined with the US-Iran standoff: Apple rises 3% pre-market, oil continues to climb, gold drops 1%, yen keeps strengthening

``` Technology stock performance diverges, the effect of yen intervention continues, and oil prices keep climbing amid US-Iran conflict risks—a jumble of multiple trends, as the market takes a breather after a strong rebound in April. On Friday (May 1), US stock futures and Asia-Europe markets showed clear divergence before the opening. Apple led gains due to strong earnings guidance, while memory chip stocks saw profit-taking after strong results; the yen continued to rise following Japanese government intervention; gold retreated under pressure; oil prices remained at weekly highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Currently, the stalemate in US-Iran talks persists. However, Florian Ielpo, an analyst at Lombard Odier Asset Management, stated: “The stock market no longer reacts mechanically to rising oil prices, because earnings momentum is strong enough to digest higher yields and geopolitical risks.” He added that US corporate earnings growth is “enough to offset the potential negative impact of rising oil prices on corporate costs and demand.” Key asset trends are as follows: - **Yen**: Japan intervened in the market for the first time since 2024. Yen rose as much as 0.7% to 155.5 against the dollar, but traders warn the rebound may not last without further intervention. - **US Tech Stock Divergence**: Apple rose about 3% pre-market, iPhone revenue hit a new high for the same period, and guidance exceeded expectations; Sandisk fell about 5% and Western Digital fell about 7%. Strong results were fully priced in, triggering profit-taking. - **Gold**: Spot gold fell 1.0% intraday to about $4575/oz. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude surpassed $111/barrel, WTI neared $106/barrel, rising about 12% on the week. Trump insists on a maritime blockade of Iranian ports. ## Apple rises against the trend, memory stocks “see profit-taking” Apple rose about 3% pre-market. Last quarter, revenue in China continued double-digit growth, iPhone revenue reached a new high for the period, and this quarter’s revenue guidance also exceeded market expectations. This performance boosted market sentiment. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both edged higher, after both indices closed at record highs on Thursday. Likewise, Sandisk and Western Digital posted bright earnings but showed the opposite stock trend movement. Sandisk fell about 6% pre-market, Western Digital about 7%. From the data, both companies greatly exceeded expectations: Sandisk revenue surged 97% year-on-year, datacenter business tripled in a single quarter; Western Digital revenue grew 45% year-on-year, and both companies’ guidance also far exceeded expectations. But analysts pointed out the problem wasn’t with the results themselves but with valuations having “run ahead”—Western Digital has gained about 900% in the past year, Sandisk about 3300% since listing. In this context, strong results were fully priced in, guidance “lacked enough surprise,” resulting in profit-taking. This logic is not uncommon: when a stock’s gains have already priced in future expectations, even if the results beat expectations, the market may still choose to “sell the fact.” ## Yen: Intervention effect continues, but sustainability in doubt On Thursday, the Japanese government bought yen and sold US dollars, sending the yen up about 3% in a single day. Today, the yen extended gains with a sharp short-term surge. Yen once rose 0.7% against the dollar to 155.5, surpassing the post-intervention high on Thursday. This is Japan’s first intervention in the forex market since 2024. Although the top Japanese FX official refused to confirm publicly, sources cited by Bloomberg say authorities did step in, and US economic officials received notice before the action. The market remains cautious about what’s next. Traders believe the rebound risks fading without further intervention, while noting the chance of another Japanese intervention is rising. Jun Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, issued a subtle warning to the market ahead of the Golden Week holiday (May 4-6): “I won’t comment on future developments, but I want to point out that we are at the beginning of a long holiday. We are in extremely close communication with the US, and I believe there is consensus in our judgment and actions.” Mimura also extended the warning to the energy market: “Generally, we are always prepared to take action on crude oil futures trading.” ## Gold under pressure, oil gains 12% weekly Spot gold fell 1.0% intraday to about $4575/oz, after trading near $4620 earlier. Oil prices remain strong. Brent crude July contract exceeded $111/barrel, WTI neared $106, a weekly gain of about 12%. The core driver for oil is geopolitics: Trump said he would insist on a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, raising market concerns that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened smoothly in the short term. Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball pointed out that the impact of oil prices is already clear in FX and bond markets, but US risk assets seem disconnected. Whether this divergence can continue has become one of the most important debates in the current market. ## Bonds and US Dollar The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up by about 2 basis points to 4.39%, giving back some of the previous day’s gain. The dollar index was little changed, after just ending its worst monthly performance since June. Risk Warning and Disclaimer: The market has risks and investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the special investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their specific situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```