Sudden changes in the situation in Iran: gold hits another record high, silver rises nearly 3%, and oil prices continue to climb.
The latest developments in Iran are becoming the new logic dominating the global commodity markets.
On Monday, January 12, risk aversion sentiment surged noticeably, with spot gold rising nearly 1% during the day, reaching the $4,550 mark and setting a new all-time high.
Silver expanded its gain to 2.7%, with prices continuing to hover near historic highs of $82.
The oil market also reacted strongly, with both Brent crude and WTI crude rising more than 1%. Data shows that following jumps of nearly 6% last Thursday and Friday, Brent crude is now approaching the $64 per barrel mark, recording its largest two-day gain since October; WTI crude prices remain near $60.
At the core of market anxiety is the sudden change in the situation in Iran over the weekend. On January 11 local time, according to CCTV News, US officials revealed that President Trump is considering various options to intervene in Iran, including announcing the deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group to the Middle East, launching cyber attacks and information warfare. In addition, according to Xinhua News Agency, Trump will meet with senior advisers on the 13th to specifically discuss options concerning Iran.
This geopolitical risk has eclipsed previous market concerns over global oversupply. As OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer, Iran faces the risk of an interruption to its nearly 2 million barrels per day of crude oil exports, directly changing investors’ expectations. Presently, the market is closely watching Washington’s next move and Tehran’s responses.
Safe-haven buying surges, crude oil options indicate bullish signs
Turbulence in Iran has directly triggered an inflow of funds into the commodity markets. Oil prices have risen for three consecutive days.
Shifts in market data clearly reflect a change in risk appetite. Data shows that this scale of risk is most evident in the options market, where the skew toward bullish calls in US crude oil futures options has reached the highest level since July. This indicates traders are heavily betting on further oil price increases to hedge against potential geopolitical supply shocks.
In addition, the turmoil in Iran has diverted market attention away from the Venezuela issue. Although Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to protect Venezuelan assets in the US, the focus is now completely on the Middle East situation.
Trump is considering multiple options to intervene in Iran
US intervention plans are entering substantive discussion stages. According to CCTV News, on January 11 local time, US officials said Trump is considering multiple options to intervene in Iran. Preliminary meetings have been held within the US government recently to “discuss ways to support (Iranian) protest activities,” including US military strikes against Iranian government targets, though “many within the Trump administration believe that major military action at this stage would undermine the protests.” Other options threatening the Iranian government include announcing the deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group to the Middle East, cyber attacks and information warfare are also under consideration.
The report states that Trump is considering all options but has not made a decision yet. Previously, Trump was reported to have received briefings on military strike options against Iran. He has not made a final decision but is seriously considering authorizing US military action. The US President will meet with senior advisers on the 13th to discuss Iran-related options.
Hundreds killed in recent unrest, Iran accuses US and Israel of conspiracy and vows retaliation
While facing external pressure, Iran’s domestic situation remains severe. According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 11th the Iranian government announced three days of national mourning for “martyrs” killed during the unrest. Tasnim News Agency, citing official sources, reported that 111 members of Iran’s security forces have died nationwide in the recent unrest while maintaining order. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the violence has led to hundreds of deaths among Iranian civilians and security personnel.
In an interview with national television, President Pezeshkian said that the Iranian government is determined to solve the economic difficulties faced by the people, but will never allow external forces to create turmoil. Pezeshkian bluntly stated that the recent unrest and acts of vandalism against public facilities in Iran are conspiracies of the US and Israel, and that those responsible “are not protesters, but rioters.” He called on all compatriots to unite and resolutely resist destructive actions.
Regarding possible US military strikes, Iran has issued a clear warning of retaliation. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Speaker Qalibaf said on the 11th that if the US attacks Iran, Iran will consider Israel and US military bases in the Middle East as “legitimate targets” for retaliation.
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