Surpassing 50 billion in revenue, can Wancheng Haoxianglai achieve a "qualitative leap in profitability"?

鸣鸣 is very busy. On the day following the Hong Kong stocks listing, its "old rival" Wancheng Group released its latest performance forecast. For the full year of 2025, Wancheng Group's bulk snack business is expected to achieve revenue of 50 billion to 52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 57.28% to 63.57% compared to the same period last year. During the quarter, Wancheng Group completed the equity acquisition of its subsidiary Nanjing Wanyou (the operating entity of Lai Youpin), increasing its shareholding from 26.01% to 75.01%. This move has significantly boosted net profit. After adding back the provisioned share-based payment expenses, the bulk snack business is expected to achieve net profit of 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, with the corresponding net profit margin sharply rising to the range of 4.4% to 5.1%. According to calculations by Huatai Securities’ consumer team, Wancheng Group is expected to achieve core Q4 2025 revenue of approximately 14.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The net profit margin of the bulk snack business in Q4 alone reached a central level of 4.8%. For the bulk snack business model, which pursues extreme turnover and thin margins, every percentage point increase in profit margin reflects “resonance” in channel bargaining power and supply chain efficiency. According to information previously obtained by Xinfeng from industry insiders, the bulk snack channels have generally reduced their subsidy to suppliers in 2025. From today's perspective, the game between "scale or profit" continues. Although the market once expected that, after the dual-leading pattern stabilizes, the focus would shift towards refined adjustment of single-store profitability, as both 鸣鸣 is very busy and Wancheng Group head to Hong Kong stocks, the industry’s “aggressiveness” has not diminished. 晏周, CEO of 鸣鸣 is very busy, frankly stated in an interview that the model still has huge scaling potential and that it is not yet time to talk about a "second curve." Wancheng Group is also accelerating rapidly. Institutions estimate that Wancheng added about 1,600 new stores in Q4 2025 alone, with the pace of expansion distinctly faster than the previous three quarters. Referring to Hunan Province, the birthplace and highest penetration region of the bulk snack format, there are currently about 5,500 stores. Huayuan Securities, considering provincial population, consumption levels, rent, and other supply and demand parameters, believes the theoretical nationwide store count could reach around 86,000. CITIC Securities believes the industry’s long-term capacity can reach 70,000-80,000 stores. Coupled with the continuing trend of increased market concentration, leading companies' store numbers still have more than 50% room for growth. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks; investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific situation. Investment made accordingly is at one's own risk.