Tariff gloom hangs over as U.S. container imports in October drop 7.5% year-on-year, nearing the key threshold of 2 million TEU.

```

U.S. ports are facing an unusual drop in import volumes in recent years, and U.S. trade activity is about to enter a "goods recession" phase.

According to the latest global shipping report released by supply chain technology company Descartes Systems Group, U.S. container imports in October were 2.31 million TEU, down a sharp 7.5% year-on-year and down 0.1% compared to September. This is only the second time in the past decade that October has seen a month-on-month decline.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates predict that inbound container volumes in November and December will fall by 14.4% and 17.9% year-on-year, respectively, possibly dropping below the critical 2 million TEU threshold. In a blog post, supply chain technology company Vizion stated:

"For the first time since March 2023, monthly import volumes have dropped below the 2 million TEU threshold, marking what freight industry experts are calling a ‘goods recession.’ This contraction represents a structural shift, not just a temporary fluctuation."

Tariff uncertainties and weak consumption prospects are leading importers to be cautious, and this sluggish trend is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2026. The evolving Trump-era tariff policies are forcing manufacturers and retailers to reassess supply chain strategies. The U.S. Supreme Court questioned the constitutionality of tariffs last week, further increasing market uncertainty.

Tariff policy fluctuations hit trade confidence

Tariff policies implemented after Trump returned to the White House have brought a roller coaster year to U.S. industries dependent on overseas goods.

Jackson Wood, industry strategy director at Descartes, said U.S. importers are facing "persistent geopolitical friction and regulatory volatility, and as policies evolve and shift quickly, this has heightened uncertainty and complexity for supply chains."

Vincent Clerc, CEO of the world’s second largest container carrier A.P. Moller-Maersk, said it is hard to judge whether the recent weak North American demand is an inventory adjustment after earlier advance orders, or reflects fundamental demand weakness. However, he pointed out that there are still signs of resilience against the backdrop of trade policy uncertainty.

The volume of containers handled by U.S. ports has dropped below the usual 2.4–2.6 million TEU range that marks peak trade activity. Port tracking data from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates shows that if December’s nearly 18% decline is realized, it will be the lowest monthly level since March 2023.

Long Beach Port CEO Mario Cordero expects 2025 to approach last year’s record of 9.6 million TEU, even though the next two months will see a slowdown. Port data show soybean exports in the first nine months of 2025 fell 93% compared to the same period last year.

Retail inventories full but outlook cautious

Despite trade pressures, retailers' early tariff mitigation efforts this year may allow Americans to avoid major disruptions such as shortages and price spikes during the holiday shopping season. Jonathan Gold, NRF’s VP of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said: "Store shelves are adequately stocked and the impact on prices has been minimized, mainly due to steps retailers took, such as front-loading imports when tariffs were lower or delayed, or absorbing the costs themselves."

NRF and Hackett Associates' port tracking data show year-end will be weak. If predictions come true, December’s near-18% drop will be the lowest point since March 2023.

The agency forecasts total container volume for 2025 at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from last year. The first quarter of 2026 may see another weak performance, partly because goods were shipped early to avoid tariffs.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said: "These conditions make market forecasting extremely uncertain. Our trade outlook is for a slight drop in imports compared to 2024, with a much steeper decline in the first quarter of 2026."

Port operators expect a mild recovery

Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, Southern California, said that despite a slowdown in the next two months, the total cargo volume at the end of 2025 is expected to be close to last year’s record of 9.6 million TEU.

"We expect to see moderate cargo growth in 2026," Cordero told reporters last Friday, but noted that this largely depends on economic conditions, including when and to what extent tariffs are passed on to consumer prices.

In an analysis released last week, supply chain visibility technology company Vizion pointed out that the freight industry’s “new normal” brings sluggish demand. "Since March 2023, monthly import volumes have fallen below the 2 million TEU threshold for the first time, marking what freight industry experts are now calling a ‘goods recession.’"

Cordero noted that product categories such as winter apparel, toys, and furniture are declining, while the AI boom is driving growth in electronics and other products related to data centers.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular situation. Investment based on this article is at your own risk. ```