Tariff policy uncertainty looms over the market; spot gold rises above $5,170, Korean stocks open higher, oil prices decline.

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In early trading during the Asian session, Korea’s Seoul Composite Index opened up 1.6%, while the US dollar and US equity futures both fell. Investors are beginning to price higher risk premiums for US assets.

Korea’s Seoul Composite Index opened up 1.6%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, and the dollar index slipped 0.2%. Due to a Japanese holiday, Asian spot market bond trading is paused, but US Treasury futures are lower. Gold and silver rose, while oil prices fell, as investors simultaneously weigh the possibility of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. The Asian stock market index rose 0.5%, mainly driven by gains in heavyweight tech stocks.

According to CCTV News, after the US Supreme Court ruled on the 20th that the US government had "overstepped" in imposing large-scale tariffs, President Trump immediately issued a new executive order, announcing a 10% import tariff on goods from all countries and regions effective February 24, 2026. On the 21st, Trump further announced an increase of this “global import tariff” rate from 10% to 15%. The lack of clarity in trade policy may cast a shadow over global prospects and keep market volatility elevated.

Korea’s Seoul Composite Index gains widened to 2%. Japanese stocks are closed due to the holiday.USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 154.27.The US 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.082%.Spot gold climbed above $5,170/oz, up 1.3% intraday.Spot silver broke above the $87 mark, now reporting $87.11/oz, up nearly 3% intraday.WTI crude oil futures opened down about 1%, now narrowing the loss to 0.65%, to $65.75/barrel.

Policy Uncertainty Shocks the Dollar

Goldman Sachs strategists Kamakshya Trivedi and others noted in a research report that the full-scale decline in the dollar may reflect a fresh injection of policy uncertainty caused by the ruling. "Policy uncertainty is a particularly important channel for the dollar because it may have negative impacts on investors and business activity. Regardless of which direction tariffs move drastically, the dollar will depreciate."

Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, said: "We already have a lot of experience with Trump, and we don’t think he will easily let go. Increased uncertainty and questions surrounding Trump’s next moves outweigh any positive factors of tariff reductions and potential returns."

Market moves in early Monday trading show that investors are starting to price higher risk premiums for US assets. Lack of clarity in US trade policy may cast a shadow over global prospects.

Review of Last Week's Market Performance

The S&P 500 rose 0.7% Friday, marking its best weekly performance since January 9. Optimism from the Supreme Court tariff ruling offset concerns over escalating US-Iran tensions. The emerging markets ETF hit a historic high. The dollar fell 0.2% Friday, narrowing its weekly gain to 0.6%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.08% in volatile trading Friday. Previously released economic growth and inflation data were mixed, while the tariff ruling increased uncertainty around potential budget shortfalls.

This rise-then-decline pattern highlights the market’s conflicted mood toward policy prospects, as investors weigh the potential benefits of tariff reductions against the risks brought by policy turmoil.

Continuously updating…

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