Tech giants are issuing bonds like crazy—Is OpenAI next?

Tech giants are issuing bonds like crazy—Is OpenAI next?

The AI arms race is pushing capital consumption to the extreme, and even industry leader OpenAI is facing staggering financial pressure.

According to Wind Chaser Trading Desk, HSBC's latest research report on November 24 reveals that after signing astronomical computing power contracts with Microsoft and Amazon, OpenAI will face a funding gap of up to $207 billion by 2030. This may force it to follow the path of other tech giants—raising funds for the expensive AI future through issuing bonds.

If it proceeds with bond issuance, this will not only impact OpenAI’s own valuation and future, but also affect the risk exposure of the entire AI industry chain, including its major shareholders Microsoft, SoftBank, and chip supplier Nvidia.

$207 Billion Staggering Funding Gap

The report, titled "OpenAI: Revisiting Commitments and Cash Flow," analyzes OpenAI’s financial dilemma in detail. Analysts predict that from the second half of 2025 to 2030, OpenAI will need to pay a cumulative $792 billion in data center rent; over the next eight years, its total computing costs are expected to reach $1.4 trillion, basically consistent with CEO Sam Altman’s projections.

The financial model in the report shows that although OpenAI’s annual revenue is projected to reach $213.6 billion by 2030, its cloud infrastructure rental costs will soar to $206.8 billion, almost swallowing all of its revenue. After factoring in free cash flow, cash injections from Nvidia, and potential gains from selling AMD shares, the model shows OpenAI will still face a $207 billion funding gap by 2030.

To visually demonstrate this financial pressure, the report’s profit and loss forecasts show that in the next few years OpenAI’s total cloud infrastructure costs will continue to exceed total revenue, and only approach break-even by 2030 (with costs at 96.8% of revenue).

Computing Power Arms Race Intensifies

OpenAI's huge capital demand stems from an escalating AI computing power arms race. The report points out that in the past four weeks, OpenAI has secured two huge deals: one to buy $250 billion in incremental computing capacity from primary partner Microsoft, and another seven-year, $38 billion cloud computing contract with Amazon.

This brings OpenAI’s committed total data center capacity to around 36 gigawatts (GW). It’s worth noting that OpenAI is not alone. Its main competitor, Anthropic, has also announced AI infrastructure investments and chip procurement plans worth tens of billions of dollars. Such massive industry-wide investment on one hand demonstrates the top model companies’ confidence in future commercialization, but on the other hand, raises growing doubts among investors about returns.

Where Will the Money Come From? Bond Issuance May Become Necessity

Faced with such a massive funding gap, OpenAI must seek solutions. The report lists five possibilities:

  1. Higher Revenue: For example, raising the ratio of paying users from 10% to 20% could bring $194 billion in additional revenue between 2026-2030.
  2. More Efficient Computing Power Utilization: Lowering per-query computing costs via model optimization.
  3. Additional Capital from Existing Shareholders: Major shareholders such as Microsoft (currently about 27% stake) and SoftBank (about 11%) could inject new equity capital.
  4. Adjusting Computing Power Commitments: Negotiating with cloud service providers to adjust future computation deployment pace according to actual demand.
  5. External Debt Financing: This is the most noteworthy path.

The report highlights that although issuing bonds is challenging in the current market environment, other tech giants have already started issuing bonds to finance AI-related capital expenditures. Recent cases include:

  • Amazon: November 2025, issued $15 billion in bonds.
  • Meta: October 2025, issued $30 billion in unsecured senior notes.
  • Alphabet: November 2025, issued $25 billion in bonds.
  • Oracle: September 2025, issued $18 billion in high-grade bonds.

This trend shows that, for the capital-intensive AI race, debt financing is becoming an important tool for tech giants. If OpenAI wants to fill its huge funding gap, it will likely have to consider this option.

Betting Big on the AI Supercycle

What justifies such staggering investment and financial risk? HSBC believes the market is witnessing an AI-driven "megacycle." Unlike the internet bubble, generative AI has shown enormous productivity application potential in a very short time.

The report cites academic research showing that AI’s impact on productivity is beginning to show. For example, a report from the St. Louis Fed found that since the launch of ChatGPT, generative AI may have increased US labor productivity by as much as 1.3%. In the context of a global GDP of over $110 trillion, even if AI-driven productivity gains only register a few basis points, the economic value created would make the current trillion-dollar capital expenditures seem well worth it.

For investors, this means that although AI companies face huge cash flow pressure in the short term, their long-term growth potential is likewise incalculable. OpenAI’s success or failure will directly affect the future performance of its partners Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD and shareholder SoftBank.

 

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The above exceptional content comes from Wind Chaser Trading Desk.

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