"Tech investment guru" warns: Soaring AI valuations are "disturbing," Nvidia's multi-billion bet on OpenAI reminiscent of the dot-com bubble

James Anderson, a renowned British tech investor who rose to fame for betting on Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, has now issued a warning about the feverish valuations in the AI sector.

According to the latest report from the Financial Times, James Anderson said this week that although he had not seen obvious signs of a bubble until the past one or two months, OpenAI's valuation soared from $157 billion to $500 billion in less than a year, and its competitor Anthropic's valuation nearly doubled to $170 billion in the past six months.

He believes that the scale and speed of these valuation jumps are "disturbing." Furthermore, Nvidia's plan to make a massive investment in one of its major clients, OpenAI, reminded him of the "vendor financing" model prevalent during the dot-com bubble era.

Anderson's comments have been accompanied by action. The Lingotto Innovation Strategy fund he manages reduced its position in Nvidia earlier this year—Nvidia previously being the fund's largest holding.

Echoes of History: Caution over "Vendor Financing" Models

Anderson's concerns center on the potential $100 billion megainvestment between Nvidia and OpenAI.

He drew an analogy to the events around 2000, when telecom equipment manufacturers financed the expansion of their customers' fiber-optic networks through massive borrowing—a model that ultimately proved unsustainable.

"I must say, the words 'vendor financing' do not bring fond memories to someone of my age," Anderson said. He added that although the current situation is "not exactly like what many telecom suppliers did in 1999-2000, it does have some similarities."

Anderson also emphasized that he remains a "huge admirer" of Nvidia, but this transaction—criticized for its cyclical structure and uncertainty—gives him "more reasons for concern than before."

From Top Holding to Reduction: Shifting Investment Strategy

Anderson's warning is not just talk; changes in his investment portfolio reflect his cautious stance. The Lingotto Innovation Strategy fund, managed jointly by Anderson and Morgan Samet, has lowered its Nvidia holding from the top position.

It is reported that the fund's largest holding is now Chinese battery manufacturer CATL. The shift took place earlier this year when Lingotto reduced its Nvidia position, while CATL's share price has surged since its Hong Kong listing in May.

This position stands in "stark contrast" to Anderson's optimistic forecasts last year. He then suggested that, in the most optimistic scenario, Nvidia's market cap could reach tens of trillions of dollars. Currently, the chipmaker's market cap is about $4.4 trillion.

Focus on Early-Stage Investments, Positioning for the Future

Despite his concerns about recent AI valuations, Anderson and his team are still actively investing in early-stage technology. Lingotto Investment Management, established by the Agnelli family's Exor holding company, is further expanding into early-stage tech investments.

Anderson's partner Morgan Samet said that Lingotto Investment Management will now invest in startups from seed stage to post-IPO.

She added that she is particularly optimistic about opportunities in autonomous vehicles and AI in healthcare, and believes "you need to get involved earlier to figure out where the future is headed."

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