Tesla accelerates autonomous driving expansion as European sales worsen, plans to double Austin Robotaxi fleet.

Tesla accelerates autonomous driving expansion as European sales worsen, plans to double Austin Robotaxi fleet.

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In the face of global difficulties in traditional automobile sales, Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk are rapidly shifting their focus towards futuristic projects such as autonomous robotaxis (Robotaxi).

Latest data shows that Tesla's sales in the European market are deteriorating sharply. According to data released Tuesday by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, the company's sales in Europe in October plunged 48.5% year-on-year. So far this year, Tesla’s cumulative sales in the region have fallen by about 30%, while the overall European electric vehicle market has achieved a strong 26% growth.

In stark contrast to the dismal sales data, Musk is actively advancing his autonomous driving business. On Tuesday, he announced on social platform X that the size of Tesla's Robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas, will double in December. Previously, Tesla launched its autonomous driving service in Austin in June and last week received permission to operate ride-hailing services in Arizona.

The weak performance in the European market shows that the sales turmoil that began at Tesla at the end of last year is unlikely to be reversed in the short term, suggesting the problems go beyond political controversies to deeper, fundamental challenges. Globally, according to Visible Alpha, after a 1% decline in 2024, Tesla's global deliveries are expected to drop another 7% this year, drawing increasing market attention to the motives and risks behind its strategic shift.

European Market Stalls, Competitors in Full Pursuit

Tesla’s predicament in Europe is particularly severe. Analysts point out that as competitors roll out a large number of cheaper and more technologically advanced electric vehicle models, Tesla’s reliance on the Model 3 and Model Y for the mass market is now showing its age. Currently, there are more than a dozen electric vehicle models on the European market priced under $30,000, with more new cars soon to be launched—many from Chinese brands offering innovative designs and a wide variety of options including pure electric and hybrids.

According to analysts interviewed by Reuters, they have not seen a quick turnaround plan for Tesla in Europe. In the UK, more than 150 electric vehicle models from multiple brands are on sale, with new Chinese competitors among them. Ginny Buckley, CEO of the electric car buying advice site Electrifying.com, said that at least 50 new electric vehicle models are expected to be launched next year, “but not one of those 50 will be a Tesla.”

The reversal of the competitive landscape is already clear. In October this year, Chinese brand BYD's sales in Europe reached 17,470 vehicles, more than twice Tesla's sales that month. Germany’s Volkswagen Group marks an even stronger sign of Tesla’s waning dominance: its electric vehicle sales surged 78.2% year-on-year to 522,600 units through September, three times that of Tesla. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of the CAR Institute at Duisburg-Essen University, commented:

“Musk's problem is not just with his own cars or Chinese carmakers, but that local European companies have already caught up.”

In the US market, although Tesla's sales in September surged by 18% as consumers rushed to buy before the $7,500 tax credit expired (according to estimates by research firm Motor Intelligence), the trend quickly reversed in October, with sales dropping by 24%. Auto industry executives generally expect the electric vehicle market to continue facing headwinds. However, traditional carmakers such as GM, Ford, and Honda are scaling back EV investments, and Tesla’s recent launch of new Model Y and Model 3 versions at about $5,000 lower prices may help stabilize some of its market share.

Strategic Focus Shift, Musk Bets on Autonomous Driving

In the face of sales difficulties, Musk has not focused on launching new mass-market models, but has instead shifted to frontiers like autonomous Robotaxi and humanoid robots. Analysts believe Tesla urgently needs a new car model to revive sales, but there is almost no evidence that the company is planning to develop new passenger vehicles.

In October, Musk said that he expected Robotaxi to operate without a safety driver in most areas of Austin this year and cover eight to ten metropolitan areas by the end of the year. Although there have been multiple previous unfulfilled promises, the Robotaxi industry is recovering as Alphabet's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox accelerate their expansion.

Notably, Musk’s recently approved compensation plan seems to confirm this shift in strategy. The plan does not require massive sales growth: so long as Tesla delivers an average of 1.2 million vehicles per year over the next decade with a rising stock price, Musk will unlock tens of billions in rewards. This delivery target is even about 500,000 vehicles less than the company’s 2024 sales, indicating that his personal incentives are now more tied to future technology visions than to growth in traditional car sales.

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