Tesla sets Q1 delivery "threshold" ahead of time; sellers estimate about 366,000 vehicles, performance report due next week.

Before officially disclosing quarterly delivery data, Tesla has rarely released its own summary of Wall Street consensus expectations, to "anchor" the market.

On Thursday local time, Tesla's official website published an announcement titled "First Quarter Delivery Consensus Forecast," summarizing results from 23 sell-side institutions' models, providing the current "consensus answer" for the market.

According to the announcement, sell-side analysts generally expect Tesla to deliver 365,645 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, a noticeable quarter-on-quarter decline but still showing year-on-year growth. Of these, deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y are forecasted at 351,179 units, and other models total about 13,946 units.

This figure matches the consensus forecast from multiple media sources, all pointing to a level of around 366,000 vehicles.

In terms of timing, this forecast shows typical seasonal characteristics:

• Year-on-year: An increase from 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, a rise of about 8%;
• Quarter-on-quarter: A clear drop from 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, a decrease of about 24%.

The market generally believes that the first quarter is usually the off-season for car sales, and with demand overspent after the year-end sales push, quarter-on-quarter declines are normal for the industry.

It is worth noting that this release is Tesla's own compiled consensus of analysts, not the company's official guidance. Tesla emphasized in the announcement that it does not endorse analysts' views or conclusions.

This approach continues Tesla's communication strategy in recent years: actively disclosing "market consensus" to set performance evaluation benchmarks in advance. Once the actual delivery numbers exceed or fall short of this level, the market response will be more direct.

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