Tesla's California self-driving "pie in the sky"? Regulatory records show: Test mileage has been zero for six consecutive years

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly promised to launch a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) service in California, but the latest regulatory records show that the company has made no substantive progress toward approval and compliance.

According to Reuters, unpublished records from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and confirmation from a spokesperson reveal that Tesla has taken no action to obtain the necessary operating permits in 2025. The data shows that Tesla's autonomous driving test mileage on California roads has been zero for the sixth consecutive year.

This stalled state directly impacts the core narrative underpinning Tesla's $1.5 trillion market value. Investors have long bet that Tesla would successfully operate a large fleet of autonomous vehicles and monetize software subscriptions at scale, with California—America’s largest car market—a critical pillar for achieving this strategic ambition.

Although Musk often blames delays in service launch on lengthy approval processes, Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor at the University of South Carolina and autonomous vehicle expert, points out that Tesla is trying to convey the message that “the company is ready while regulators are lagging behind,” but the reality is quite the opposite.

Compliance Hurdles for Test Data

Under California's current regulatory framework, recording test mileage is a core prerequisite for autonomous vehicle companies to obtain commercial operating permits. According to Reuters, deploying a fully driverless ride-hailing service like Alphabet’s Waymo in California requires companies to go through a series of approvals from the DMV and the California Public Utilities Commission, which regulates commercial ride-hailing businesses.

Currently, Tesla only holds an entry-level DMV permit, which requires a safety driver in the driver's seat during testing. A DMV spokesperson stated that Tesla has not applied for any additional permits. Under a new DMV regulation draft expected to be finalized later this year, companies must complete at least 50,000 miles (about 80,467 kilometers) of autonomous driving tests under a safety driver’s supervision on California public roads before applying for a permit to test without a safety driver.

However, Tesla has not reported any mileage to the state regulatory agency since 2019, and its total mileage since 2016 is only 562 miles. By comparison, Waymo accumulated over 13 million miles of test mileage between 2014 and 2023, received seven different regulatory approvals, and was ultimately permitted to charge passengers. Waymo is currently one of three companies with a permit to operate a driverless commercial fleet in California, and the only one allowed to run a fleet at the scale envisioned by Musk.

Regulatory Barriers and Business Status

Tesla is currently adopting strategies to bypass high regulatory barriers in its actual operations. The company operates only a small Robotaxi pilot project in Austin, Texas, where regulations are much looser.

In the San Francisco Bay Area of California, Tesla launched a so-called “Robotaxi” service last July. But according to California regulators and Tesla’s disclosures to customers, this is not a true driverless taxi. Instead, it is a chauffeured service provided by human drivers using Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) assist software, which does not achieve fully autonomous driving capabilities.

Responding to slow progress on compliance, Musk explained to analysts at a financial results conference last October that the company is “obsessed with safety” and takes a “cautious approach” to entering new markets. He also hinted that California’s regulations are a major obstacle, claiming the state’s approval process is extremely lengthy.

Tesla also criticized California DMV’s proposed rule revisions on autonomous driving in its written comments last year, questioning the necessity of local test requirements and minimum mileage thresholds, and complained that reporting requirements for collisions and system failures are “overly burdensome.” Tesla did not respond to requests for comment regarding the above regulatory records and progress.

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