Tesla's Q4 deliveries may plunge by 15%, and Wall Street has sharply lowered its 2026 sales forecast to 1.8 million vehicles.

While investors are eagerly supporting Tesla’s autonomous driving ambitions, the company is facing a persistent decline in actual car sales.

Tesla is set to announce its fourth-quarter delivery figures on Friday. According to Bloomberg, Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a year-over-year decrease of 11%, indicating that second-half sales will fall below last year’s levels.

Wall Street CN previously mentioned that Tesla this week released a compilation of analyst forecasts, which paint an even gloomier picture, expecting fourth-quarter deliveries of 422,850 units—a year-on-year drop of 15%.

Additionally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, Wall Street’s delivery forecast for Tesla in 2026 has been drastically revised down from over 3 million vehicles to about 1.8 million units.

Although the company’s stock price soared in the second half of 2025, the main driver was progress in AI and robotics championed by CEO Elon Musk, rather than sales performance of electric vehicles.

Analysts point out that investors are currently focused on Tesla’s long-term (5 to 15 years) development potential, rather than short-term financial performance. However, with the cancellation of the federal EV tax credit in the US, intensifying global competition, and regulatory hurdles in Europe, this strategy is being put to the test.

Delivery Figures Set to Fall Sharply

Tesla expects fourth-quarter deliveries to be significantly lower than the 496,000 units a year earlier and the third quarter’s record 497,000 vehicles.

On Monday, Tesla unusually posted a roundup of analyst forecasts on its website. Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, said on social media:

This is very unusual. Obviously, someone at Tesla wants the consensus from investor relations to circulate as widely as possible.

He speculates that Tesla’s deliveries could be around 420,000 units.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak has already lowered his fourth-quarter delivery estimate from 429,000 to 415,000 units.

FactSet’s consensus estimate is about 440,000 vehicles, a clear drop from earlier expectations of 460,000. This would mark Tesla’s second consecutive year of annual sales decline.

The weak fourth-quarter sales are primarily attributed to the expiration of the US federal EV tax credit last September, which previously gave buyers up to $7,500 off. The surge in purchases ahead of the credit’s expiration boosted third-quarter sales, but also exhausted fourth-quarter demand.

Additionally, third-quarter deliveries far exceeded production at 447,450 vehicles, and this inventory depletion also pressured fourth-quarter sales.

Robotaxi Vision Supports Valuation

Despite a weak automotive sales business, investors remain optimistic about Tesla’s outlook for autonomous driving.

Last June, Tesla launched its invite-only Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, using Model Y vehicles staffed with safety drivers to transport passengers. Despite these vehicles violating traffic laws on the very first day and federal investigations being launched, investors have shrugged off safety concerns.

In September, Tesla’s board proposed a new compensation package for Musk, with potential rewards worth up to $1 trillion, based on milestones including delivering millions of robotaxis.

Subsequently, Tesla’s stock price rebounded rapidly and hit an all-time high on December 22 last year.

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, stated:

Investors have fully bought into his vision for autonomous driving, which is timely because Tesla's EV business may be flat or grow 5% next year.

He emphasized that Musk only needs the auto business to stay steady in the coming year to keep investors satisfied.

It’s worth noting that Tesla’s current price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 300 times, putting tremendous pressure on when and how the company will fulfill its self-driving promises.

CFRA Research equity analyst Garrett Nelson stated, investors care about Tesla’s outlook over the next 5, 10, or 15 years, not its short-term performance. He questioned:

The question is, can they keep focusing that far ahead, especially as we think the financial outlook faces more headwinds?

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