The biggest IPO in history is coming! Will the market buy into SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation?

The biggest IPO in history is coming! Will the market buy into SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation?

```

SpaceX is preparing a listing that could rewrite the history of the capital markets, but debates about the rationality of its valuation and the logic of its business integration have become the major uncertainties for this IPO.

On March 10, according to a previous article by Wallstreetcn, SpaceX plans to raise up to $50 billion through an IPO, aiming for a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. If successful, this IPO will break the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, which raised $29.4 billion, becoming the largest IPO in history. As early as this June, Elon Musk's aerospace company may officially enter the public market.

However, SpaceX's all-stock acquisition of xAI just before its IPO is making some investors uneasy. xAI burns about $1 billion per month on AI infrastructure, and this cash drain is diluting SpaceX's core business, especially Starlink's appeal to investors. Whether public market investors are willing to accept this valuation remains unknown.

Confidential Filing Planned for March, Listing as Early as June

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX has selected several major Wall Street banks to assist with the IPO filing preparations, including preparing the required financial disclosure documents for submission to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company may submit a confidential filing in March, officially launching the SEC's typical two-to-three-month review process.

Once the review is complete, SpaceX will publicly file its prospectus, making its financial data fully visible to the public for the first time. Entering the public filing stage will initiate a 15-day publicity period. After this period, the company will begin its roadshow, pitching shares to institutional investors and determining the offering price range. The day after the final pricing is set, shares will officially begin trading.

Regarding underwriting arrangements, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley have confirmed their participation in this offering, though their specific roles have not yet been clarified.

SpaceX's fundraising needs are rooted in its massive business expansion plans. According to Bloomberg, in an internal memo from December last year, IPO proceeds will be specifically used for Starship rocket ongoing research and development, space AI data center construction, and lunar base project advancement.

The core asset underpinning its high valuation expectations is Starlink. This global satellite broadband service is currently SpaceX's main source of cash flow. Its continually growing user base, absolute dominance in the commercial rocket launch market, and the construction of direct-to-phone networks together form a unique business portfolio in the public market. Pitchbook analysts point out:

"Starlink's user growth, launch market dominance, and direct-to-phone network construction—this combination has no comparable counterpart in the public market."

Additionally, SpaceX's leadership in commercial space, billions in government contract revenue, and deep connections with industries such as defense and telecommunications will become Elon Musk's core narrative when pitching to IPO investors.

xAI Acquisition: Opportunity or Burden?

SpaceX's completion of the xAI acquisition before the IPO is the most controversial variable in this listing. xAI's monthly cash consumption of about $1 billion is mainly used to cover the costs of computing infrastructure needed for AI model training, which for investors initially bullish on SpaceX's space business means suddenly taking on exposure to a high-risk AI sector.

Critics argue that if SpaceX is viewed as a loosely structured conglomerate, its valuation may fall short of company expectations.

Elon Musk himself defines this business portfolio as a "vertically integrated innovation engine," believing that the synergy between rockets, space internet, AI, and social media is particularly helpful in advancing space data center opportunities.

Musk May Retain Absolute Control

Before the xAI acquisition was completed, Musk's stake in SpaceX was already less than half, with external investors including Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Fidelity Investments, and Alphabet among others. After the xAI deal, Musk's shareholding ratio remains unclear.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is considering adopting a dual-class share structure, allowing insiders—possibly including Musk—to retain near absolute control over key strategic and company governance decisions after the IPO. For investors optimistic about SpaceX's potential and Musk's track record, this arrangement may not be an obstacle; but if the company encounters problems, such a structure will significantly limit the influence of outside shareholders.

Musk’s “Personal Brand” Effect

When persuading investors to accept the high valuation, Musk's personal reputation is itself a trump card. Tesla's stock has risen by about 3000% over the past decade, generating profits for many investors. For some prospective IPO investors, this performance record may be the strongest endorsement.

Meanwhile, SpaceX's IPO will also offer ordinary investors the opportunity to participate. Users of retail trading platforms such as Robinhood and SoFi are expected to directly subscribe via these platforms, but for popular IPOs, retail allocations are usually very limited.

Risk DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider users’ individual investment goals, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```