The core terms of the US-Iran agreement revealed: Immediate lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, nuclear program to remain unchanged, uncertainty remains over the reopening of the strait.

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The United States and Iran are about to officially sign a memorandum of understanding containing 14 key points, aiming to permanently end the conflict between the two sides. This interim peace agreement will immediately lift the blockade on Iranian oil exports and pave the way for the final nuclear agreement negotiations in the next 60 days.

According to media reports, the US and Iran are expected to formally sign the memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on June 19. US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will lead delegations to attend the signing ceremony. US President Trump publicly stated at the G7 Summit in France that the agreement is settled and will effectively prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

The most notable clause in the agreement and its most direct impact on the market is that the US will immediately allow Iran to export crude oil.

According to Xinhua News Agency citing the US Wall Street Journal report on the 16th, after the US and Iran sign the memorandum of understanding this week, Iran can sell its oil and fuel overseas. The report, citing anonymous sources, says that sanctions on Iranian oil export-related sectors such as banking, shipping, and insurance will also be simultaneously exempted.

Regarding nuclear issues, media reports say Iran reiterated in the draft that it will never manufacture nuclear weapons. Before reaching the final agreement, both sides agree to maintain the status quo: Iran keeps its nuclear program at the existing level, and the US will not increase troops or impose new sanctions in the region. The draft notes that the fate of enriched nuclear material and other related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be properly addressed in the final agreement. 

Despite the significant benefits brought by the peace agreement, the market remains cautious about a full restoration of the supply chain. Both sides agreed to return maritime traffic to full capacity within 30 days. There are still differences regarding the reopening time and navigation conditions of the Strait of Hormuz, and the details about the $300 billion rebuilding fund and the release of over $100 billion in frozen assets mentioned in the draft still need to be further implemented and verified in future multilateral negotiations.

Immediate Exemption of Crude Oil Exports Boosts Market Supply

According to Xinhua News Agency citing the US Wall Street Journal, after the signing of the memorandum, the US Treasury Department will immediately exempt sanctions on Iranian exports of crude oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, as well as related services like banking, insurance, and transportation.

This initiative aims to provide Iran with an early financial incentive to end the conflict. Data from the non-profit organization "United Against Nuclear Iran" and ship tracking show that the Iranian supertanker Diona carrying crude oil has left Chabahar Port, passed through the US blockade area and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman, marking the first transit since the US blockade in April. Subsequently, the second supertanker Hero II also completed the passage.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed out that allowing Iran to export oil is a key bargaining chip that the White House gave up to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Sima Shine from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies believes that compared to Iran's possible restoration of oil smuggling activities, legalizing them not only provides real economic incentives but also helps directly reduce global energy prices.

$300 Billion Reconstruction Fund and Asset Unfreezing Disputes

Drafts obtained by the media indicate the US promises, together with its regional partners, to formulate a comprehensive plan providing at least $300 billion in financing guarantees for Iran’s economic reconstruction and development, with the implementation mechanism to be established within 60 days.

However, the source of funds is the focus of all parties. Trump clearly stated the US will not provide funds and requires Iran to “prove itself” first. Senior US officials revealed that Washington will seek investment from other countries and the private sector.

In addition, the memorandum requires the release of restricted Iranian funds. According to CCTV News, Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati emphasized that the memorandum specifies the US’s obligation to unfreeze assets, and these funds belonging to Iran's central bank will be allocated according to national economic needs and foreign exchange priorities.

It is reported that Iran possesses about $100 billion in restricted assets. Compared to sanction exemptions that can be revoked at any time, the transfer of asset ownership will bring Iran more lasting economic benefits.

Strait Opening Process and Navigation Rules Under Pressure

In maritime transportation, the US will immediately lift the blockade after signing the memorandum, not interfere with Iran's shipping, and restore maritime traffic to full capacity within 30 days at most. Meanwhile, Iran ensures bidirectional merchant vessel passage from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman is back to pre-war levels within 30 days. The US also promises to withdraw troops from surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement is reached.

Although Trump promises the strait will open by this Friday, governments in several European countries, energy investors, and shipping companies remain highly skeptical.

Besides the substantial security risks of clearing sea mines, long-term navigation rules in the strait are causing serious disagreements. Iran hints that after the 60-day negotiation period, it will collect navigation fees from passing vessels. Trump told UAE leaders that the strait will be "permanently" open for free. Senior US officials admit that the status of navigation in the strait after 60 days will remain an important subject of subsequent negotiations.

60-Day Negotiation Window and Geopolitical Risks

The signing of the memorandum is only the first step in the long-term peace process. Both sides agree to maintain the status quo before the final agreement: Iran reiterates it will never produce nuclear weapons and maintain the current status of its nuclear program, while the US promises not to impose new sanctions or increase troops in the region. Furthermore, the agreement requires an immediate and permanent ceasefire on "all fronts", including Lebanon.

However, the regional situation and bilateral trust remain fragile.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called for Israel’s withdrawal from occupied territories in a conversation with Lebanese officials, while Israeli politicians called for continued strikes against Hezbollah, casting uncertainty over the thorough implementation of the agreement.

JD Vance emphasized that the agreement will be based on a strict verification system. The White House also warned that if Iran breaches the agreement, military strikes would be resumed without hesitation. In the next 60 days, whether the two sides can reach a final agreement needing the approval of a binding UN Security Council resolution amidst multiple divergences remains highly uncertain.

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