The darkest hour has arrived! Goldman Sachs: Memory supply shortages squeeze, PC shipments may drop 12% this year, Apple grows against the trend

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The global PC market is facing a dual shock of memory supply shortages and price hikes. Goldman Sachs analysts have issued a warning that structural memory shortages will constrain PC supply and drive up end-user prices, with global PC shipments potentially dropping significantly in 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Katherine Murphy noted in her latest report that the "structural supply shortage" in the memory market will restrict PC supply capabilities and force manufacturers to raise prices to protect their already thin profit margins. She predicts that global PC shipments will decline by about 12% year-on-year to 245 million units in 2026, with consumer PCs falling by 15% to 108 million units and commercial PCs falling by 9% to 137 million units.

This outlook poses direct pressure on the entire PC industry chain. Dell and HP’s PC shipments are expected to drop by high single digits to low double digits year-on-year, while Apple is likely to achieve modest growth with new products, including the entry-level MacBook Neo. For consumers, PC price increases are almost a foregone conclusion.

DRAM and NAND cost share doubles, manufacturers’ profit margins are squeezed

Murphy’s report breaks down the impact of rising memory costs on PC manufacturing cost structures. In normal market conditions, DRAM and NAND components typically account for about 20% of the total PC material cost; under the current pricing system, this proportion has risen to about 40%, an unprecedented cost pressure.

Facing soaring component costs, PC manufacturers mainly have three countermeasures: directly raising product prices, reducing discount promotions, or guiding consumers to higher-priced products by adjusting product mix. Regardless of the method, the ultimate burden falls on consumers’ actual purchasing costs.

Memory spot prices soar, clear market signals have emerged

Violent price fluctuations in memory have become evident in the spot market.

According to price tracking site CamelCamelCamel, the Amazon price for a Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory kit was around $150 in early autumn 2025. After sharp increases, it has stayed around $740 this year—a nearly 400% rise.

Tech media Tom's Hardware also issued warnings, stating that persistently high memory prices are impacting the entire consumer electronics supply chain, with the PC market being hit especially hard. Goldman Sachs had previously repeatedly warned about memory shortages and characterized it as a new global technology supply chain bottleneck following AI computing power.

Consumer market takes the brunt, commercial segment is also under pressure

In terms of segment markets, consumer PCs are more severely impacted than commercial PCs. Murphy forecasts a 15% year-on-year decline in consumer PC shipments, higher than the 9% decline for commercial PCs, reflecting greater sensitivity and demand elasticity among individual consumers facing price increases.

Although the commercial PC market is relatively more resistant to declines, it too cannot fully avoid the dual pressure from tighter supply and rising costs. For investors, traditional PC giants like Dell and HP face greater uncertainty in profit outlook, while Apple might maintain relative resilience due to its new product cycles. Overall, the fundamentals of the PC market in 2026 are under significant pressure, and the industry's recovery timeline is highly uncertain.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market involves risks and investments require caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their specific situation. Investing accordingly is at one’s own risk. ```