The Democratic Party is "standing firm" this time, and the U.S. government is "getting closer and closer" to a shutdown.

Distance to federal funds running out is less than a week, and the U.S. government is rapidly approaching a shutdown, with no signs of resolution emerging from the political deadlock between the two parties. According to media reports on September 25, Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives recently released a temporary spending bill aimed at preventing the federal government from shutting down on October 1. However, the bill does not include the healthcare policies demanded by Democrats, resulting in a standoff between the two parties. As the shutdown crisis approaches, the conflict is growing increasingly intense. The latest development is that Republicans are seeking to extend current levels of federal funding for seven weeks to avoid a government shutdown. However, Democrats see this funding as a rare legislative opportunity and are demanding the inclusion of hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare spending. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made it clear that this time he will take a **much tougher** stance. To exert political pressure, President Trump’s budget director Russ Vought has threatened to use the disruption in funding as an opportunity for deeper cuts to the federal workforce. However, this move, seen as "blackmail" by Democrats, seems to have backfired. Schumer made it clear that **Democrats will not be intimidated by such threats and said many colleagues are “very angry” about it.** Trump hit back, saying Democrats are **“not serious and ridiculous.”** The current fiscal year’s federal funding for the U.S. government will officially run out on September 30. Without congressional action, a government shutdown will begin on October 1. According to prediction market data cited by Goldman Sachs trader Thales Arruda, the market believes that **the probability of a U.S. government shutdown this time has exceeded 75%, and the duration could be similar to the three-week shutdown in 2013. It is estimated that for every week the government is shut, GDP growth for that quarter will fall by 15 basis points.** For investors, the most direct impact will be a “vacuum period” for key economic data. Once the government shuts down, federal agencies responsible for issuing employment and inflation data are likely to suspend operations. This means the market will not receive key indicators like nonfarm payrolls and CPI on schedule, making policy assessment by the Fed significantly more difficult and increasing market uncertainty. **Shutdown probability spikes to 76%, last window is dim** According to prediction market PolyMarket data, the probability of a government shutdown has surged to over 75%. Goldman Sachs Chief Trader Thales Arruda said that in theory, **the last chance to avoid a shutdown will come after the Senate reconvenes on September 29. At that time, if Democrats change their stance, the extension bill already approved by the House could pass.** However, this scenario is **widely regarded as unlikely**. Last week, the Republican “stopgap” spending bill narrowly passed in the House, but failed in the Senate. Since most Senate legislation requires 60 votes to pass, Republicans need at least seven Democratic supporters. After the proposal failed, House leaders announced they would not return to Washington until after the deadline, which effectively issued a “accept it or shut down” ultimatum to Senate Democrats. **Stalemate core: Medical funding and political pressure** The heart of the current stalemate is that Democrats view this as a rare legislative opportunity. Schumer has made demands including an extension of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and the reversal of previous Republican Medicaid cuts. **Unlike in March this year, when Schumer and some Democrats voted for the Republican proposal to avoid a shutdown—drawing sharp criticism from the party’s progressives—this time, the Democratic stance is much tougher.** The White House’s pressure tactics have further intensified the conflict. Management and Budget Office (OMB) Director Russ Vought issued a memo directing agencies to prepare permanent layoff plans. Democratic Congressman Don Beyer called this “mafia-style blackmail.” Former OMB Director Shalanda Young pointed out that a government shutdown does not give the executive branch a “magic power” to fire employees; at best, this is a negotiation tactic. Democratic Senator Cory Booker stated, **“If you’re not even willing to talk to us, that shows you’re determined to push our country into the abyss of a shutdown.”** Republicans, meanwhile, accused Democrats of trying to attach unreasonable demands to the short-term spending bill. Georgia Republican Congressman Buddy Carter said on social media, **“If a shutdown occurs, there’s no doubt: it will be a ‘Schumer shutdown.’”** **Economic cost: GDP takes a hit** If the U.S. government shuts down, the direct impact on the economy is not to be ignored. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, **for every week of shutdown, the quarter’s GDP growth will fall by 15 basis points.** For example, a three-week shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 45 basis points, though part of this lost output would be made up the following quarter as economic activity resumes. **Goldman Sachs said the 2013 three-week shutdown can be used as a reference for duration.** However, it should be noted that the situation at that time also involved a debt ceiling debate, which is not the focus of the current stalemate. **Data “vacuum period”: Nonfarm payrolls and CPI may be delayed, adding uncertainty to Fed decisions** If a U.S. government shutdown does occur, its impact will quickly spread to financial markets. According to [Wallstreetcn](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756075), a report from Nomura Securities warns that **the U.S. Department of Labor and its Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which publish employment and inflation data, are likely to shut down on October 1.** This means the market will **not see a series of key data on schedule, including the jobs report on October 4, the CPI report on October 15, and the retail sales report on October 16.** Without this official data, it will be much harder for the Fed to assess the economy, greatly reducing the likelihood of deviating from its September policy path at the end-October meeting. Historical experience shows that even after government operations resume, it can take a considerable amount of time for data releases to return to normal. For example, the 16-day government shutdown in 2013 caused data delays to persist until 51 days after the shutdown ended. This uncertainty could trigger unusual market volatility in the weeks ahead. Risk warnings and disclaimers The market involves risk; investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investment decisions made on the basis of this article are at your own risk.