The Disappearance of the "Year-End Surge" in the Car Market
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Author | Zhou Zhiyu
Editor | Zhang Xiaoling
The Chinese auto market is showing a sense of “overlap.”
In November, Harmony Intelligent Mobility crossed the 80,000 mark for the first time, vowing to rewrite the landscape of the luxury car market; Geely’s monthly sales broke 310,000, marking a major success in new energy transformation; Leapmotor soared by 75% year-on-year, and declared its ambition for one million sales next year.
Yet, according to earlier statistics released by the China Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 23rd, nationwide passenger car retail numbers fell year-on-year and month-on-month. So far, there is no sign of improvement. After the traditional “golden September and silver October” and in the closing window for the full exemption of purchase tax, the year-end tail-up effect failed to materialize.
Behind the booming leading enterprises and the sluggish market is the acceleration of the Chinese auto market’s elimination race. This is why Geely’s Gui Shengyue is warning of the elimination competition and NIO’s William Li is going all out for profitability. Because they know better than anyone: the era of high growth is over, and the era of brutal stock competition has arrived.
In November, the Chinese auto market showed a pattern of giant companies and sharp sales gaps, with drastic differentiation before the year-end push.
BYD’s November sales exceeded 480,000, with overseas sales as the month’s highlight, breaking 130,000 for the first time. Overseas sales data to some extent eased investor worries about domestic sales pressure. On December 2, while Hong Kong’s new energy auto sector overall declined, BYD shares closed up 2.19%.
Geely Auto also rose against the trend, thanks to an accelerated new energy transformation. November’s sales were 310,000, putting the annual target of 3 million in sight. Among these, new energy model sales rose 53% year-on-year to 180,000, with a penetration rate over 60%. Zeekr Technology's November sales rose 3.68% month-on-month to 63,902 units, but performance among internal brands diverged, with Lynk & Co dropping from over 40,000 in October to 35,059 in November.
Among new forces, Harmony Intelligent Mobility and Leapmotor completely broke away from the pack to become challenger giants. Harmony Intelligent Mobility sold 81,864 units with its complete "Five Realms" line-up, a new record for monthly deliveries. Leapmotor delivered 70,327 units, holding the champion among new forces’ single-brand sales for nine consecutive months.
Xiaomi Auto remained at the 40,000+ level. "NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto" all saw a month-on-month decline in November, falling below the 40,000 mark, resulting in a clear “brand gap” among the 50,000-70,000 range for the new forces.
Among "national team" representatives, Voyah performed outstandingly, climbing over the 20,000 mark with 20,005 deliveries in November. This shows Voyah, after a long climb, is exhibiting risk resistance in the 300,000-yuan market. Avatr remained stable, delivering 14,057 vehicles, a slight month-on-month increase.
While total sales diverged, November’s sales structure also revealed fundamental changes in consumer mentality.
The disappearance of the year-end upturn is a dangerous signal. According to previous logic, as long as prices drop for promotions, sales can be boosted. But this November, even with the double stimulus of “trade-in” subsidies and carmakers’ year-end rushes, the market remained sluggish.
First, the “range-extender/hybrid” dividend period is shifting. Pressure on some automakers’ sales mainly comes from declining “range-extender/hybrid” models. When technical barriers are leveled and the range-extender products lack core differentiation (such as AI computing power or cost control), their market share begins to be eroded by rivals.
Second, the marginal effect of price wars is diminishing. In the low-end market, consumers await even lower prices, or postpone buying due to unstable income expectations. In the high-end market, simply piling on features like “fridge or TV” can no longer maintain price premiums; only true technological barriers can lock in customers.
UBS investment bank’s China auto industry research chief Gong Min noted that even before year-end policy stimulus wanes, weakening demand was already apparent. This is a negative signal for the entire car market.
This also foreshadows that competition in the 2026 auto market will become even fiercer.
J.P. Morgan's Asia auto industry research director Lai Yizhe told Wallstreetcn that China's auto market in 2026 may enter an even more challenging environment, with intensified polarization.
A major factor is that the advantage of buying new energy vehicles will be further weakened. According to policy plans, in 2026 the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will return to 5%. UBS forecasts this will directly increase the cost for consumers. For a 300,000 yuan NEV, buyers will need to pay an extra 15,000 yuan.
As for subsidy cuts, UBS’s base scenario is that scrap and trade-in subsidies will partially continue in 2026, but the amounts will shrink. Electric car subsidies are expected to fall from the current 20,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan. “Increased taxes + reduced subsidies” means the threshold for buying a car will rise significantly.
Gong Min believes the structure of car sales in 2026 will also change, with low-end models—those better stimulated by policies—under greater pressure, while in past downturns, the high-end market proved more resilient, and exports will accelerate.
UBS forecasts, including exports, that China passenger car wholesale growth will slow to 3% in 2026; while wholesale growth for electric vehicles (including exports) will fall to 15%.
This also shows that with slowing demand and intensifying price competition, the era of generalized growth in the Chinese car market is completely over. In the future, it will be hard for new dark horse brands to emerge, and the market will further concentrate on top players.
As Geely CEO Gui Shengyue said, next year the industry will begin a real survival-of-the-fittest phase. This is also why automakers like Geely have spent the past year integrating internal resources. In a stock market, multi-brand strategies are no longer advantageous (“more children, more power to fight”) but lead to resource dilution and internal friction. Only by pulling together can they withstand the coming winter.
When the tide truly goes out in 2026, the survival race for automakers will only just begin.
Risk Disclaimer and Exemption ClauseThe market involves risk, investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article fits their own situation. Investments based on this are at your own risk. ```