The era of fossil fuels becomes a thing of the past? IEA: Global oil and gas demand will continue to grow for another 25 years

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued its latest report warning that if countries do not change current energy policies, global demand for oil and natural gas will continue to rise over the next quarter-century, sounding the alarm for global climate targets.

On November 12, the IEA released its latest "World Energy Outlook" report, setting out a new scenario called "Current Policies." The agency pointed out that if the world continues on its current path, global oil and gas demand will keep growing for the next 25 years, and carbon dioxide emissions will not see any meaningful decline.

This forecast marks a significant shift in the IEA's position. Previously, all of the agency's models assumed fossil fuel consumption would peak within this decade, a view that had met fierce resistance from the oil and gas industry and the U.S. White House.

Declining Concern for Climate Change

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, "The status of climate change in the international energy policy agenda is on the decline—and declining rapidly." He added that this is happening as "2024 is on track to be the hottest year in history."

The newly introduced "Current Policies Scenario" takes into account countries' shifting stances on climate targets, growing desires for secure and affordable energy, and a slowdown in electric vehicle growth. Birol explained that in this scenario, energy and climate policies over the next 25 years will remain unchanged, with no new policies introduced.

According to this new scenario, global daily oil demand will rise from about 100 million barrels in 2024 to 113 million barrels in 2050, driven primarily by aviation, trucking, and the petrochemical industry. Meanwhile, electric vehicles' share of sales will plateau at around 40% by 2035.

By comparison, in the IEA's "Announced Policies Scenario" (which reflects proposed but not legislated policies), oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2030, and half of new vehicle sales will be electric by 2035.

Policy Maneuvering Behind the Adjustment

The IEA's adjustment to its forecasting models comes as it faces external pressure. According to reports, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly criticized the IEA's "peak oil" predictions in July as "utter nonsense," threatening to reform the agency or withdraw support.

However, the IEA stated that the introduction of the new scenario was not prompted by U.S. pressure but rather by “wider uncertainty about this year's energy outlook,” and that the approach had been discussed with all member governments, each expressing interest in multiple scenarios.

Surging Demand for Electricity

The report also highlights that huge growth in electricity demand is central to all forecast scenarios. By 2035, under both the “Current Policies” and “Announced Commitments” scenarios, electricity demand is set to grow by about 40%.

Of this, up to 80% of growth in energy consumption will come from regions well-suited to solar power generation, indicating that renewable energy is still set for huge development.

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