The era of hoarding goods has arrived.
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Against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of global supply chains, the commodity market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift.
According to Bloomberg, major global economies are shifting from the “just-in-time” supply chain model of past decades to a cost-insensitive “just-in-case” stockpiling model. At the heart of this transformation, countries are no longer satisfied with maintaining the minimum levels of commercial inventories but are instead building vast strategic reserves to cope with potential risks of war, shipping disruptions, or geopolitical blockades. This intense craving for security is reshaping the supply and demand structure for all categories of commodities, from oil to rare metals.
Within this trend, energy and strategic metals have become the focus of hoarding. Michael Haigh, Global Head of Commodities Research at Societe Generale, noted that some countries may have already stockpiled around 1.4 billion barrels of oil—a “massive” volume enough to sustain several hundred days in the event of a complete supply chain disruption, far exceeding the international standard of 90 days. At the same time, driven by “strong security” logic, prices of key defense-related metals like tungsten and cobalt have seen violent fluctuations. According to Zheshang Securities data, by 2025, tungsten and cobalt have increased by 229% and 120% respectively.
Market analysts point out that this shift establishes new trading themes for investors. On one hand there is gold allocation around “de-dollarization,” and on the other, the logic of going long on metals based on national security needs. As central banks increasingly treat gold as a core tool to hedge credit risk, and as defense budgets surge — such as Trump’s proposal to raise the US defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion — the commodity market is entering a new cycle dominated by geopolitical premiums.
From “Just-in-Time” to “Just-in-Case”
In a global environment of low trust, survival has replaced efficiency. Bloomberg columnist Merryn Somerset Webb notes that the days of holding US Treasury bonds, earning interest, and being confident you can always buy the goods you need with dollars are over. Now, the logic is: you must own the physical asset, and you must own it now.
This logic is especially evident in oil reserves. Michael Haigh analyzes that some countries may not only already have about 1.4 billion barrels of oil in reserves, but may even plan to push that up to 2 billion barrels.
The US is also bolstering its energy security. Although the US has the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and is a net exporter, in the face of crisis, the definition of “enough” has been rewritten. US actions towards Venezuela and its interest in Greenland’s resources both reflect an attempt to secure long-term absolute safety by controlling resource origins.
“Strong Security” Logic Reshapes Metal Valuations
The scope of stockpiling now goes far beyond energy. If oil is about energy security, industrial and rare earth metals are about economic and national security.
Michael Haigh posits a key hypothesis: if countries that import nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, silver, and copper decide to stockpile these metals as they do oil, prices will “fly to the moon.” In fact, due to underinvestment over the last decade, many metal markets are already in deficit.
WallstreetCN reports that Zheshang Securities has published findings further confirming this trend. The report points out that strategic material hoarding driven by “strong security” is pushing defense metals to be revalued. From January to November 2025, global base metal prices rose 15%, but those closely tied to defense demand saw astonishing gains:
- Tungsten (armor materials): Up 229%
- Cobalt (drone/exoskeleton energy): Up 120%
- Copper (AI data centers/basic military supplies): Up 42%
Beyond traditional industrial demand, construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure, power grid expansion, and soaring defense budgets (US plans to increase to $1.5 trillion) all exacerbate supply-demand conflicts.
Central Bank Gold Buying Wave and De-Dollarization
Besides physical commodities, the status of gold as a reserve asset is undergoing a fundamental change.
According to Zheshang Securities, the global “de-dollarization” process is reshaping gold's pricing logic. IMF data shows the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.92%. Amid rising US Treasury credit risk and geopolitical sanctions risk, central banks are accelerating the shift of reserve assets from dollars to gold.
Michael Haigh points out that many central banks aim to raise gold reserves to 20% of their total assets. Most are still far from this goal. He calculates that if the 50 largest central banks globally, specifically those with insufficient reserves, were to increase their gold reserve ratios by just 1%, gold prices would be pushed up by about $1,000.
Zheshang Securities believes that gold’s pricing logic has shifted from being driven by real interest rates to being dominated by official-sector demand and geopolitical risk premiums. 95% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings, and this buying forms the cornerstone of a long-term upward trend in gold prices.
What Does This Mean for the Market?
For the market, this macro narrative shift brings direct investment insights.
Bloomberg advises investors that while there is no need to personally get involved in complicated physical hoarding, attention should be paid to relevant capital market opportunities. European defense stocks and commodity ETFs are effective tools for diversification. Notably, the FTSE 100 index recently hit the 10,000-point milestone, composed mainly of mining, oil, and defense stocks, confirming that market funds are flowing into “hard assets.”
In contrast, former tech darlings like Nvidia performed worse than mining stocks in 2025, with its share price dropping nearly 10% from its peak. This suggests a possible market style rotation.
Moreover, gold mining stocks are also beneficiaries. All 313 gold miners tracked by Wood Mackenzie posted record profits at current gold prices. Zheshang Securities recommends investors focus on gold with independent value storage capability, as well as key metals closely tied to defense demand and less affected by the real estate cycle.
Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account specific users' unique investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their individual circumstances. Investing based on this article is at your own risk. ```