The extreme impact of the "miracle weight loss drug": If half of obese people use it, global food consumption will decrease by 2%-9%.

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As GLP-1 weight loss drugs rapidly become widespread, their impact on global consumer spending is moving from theory to reality. The latest research from HSBC shows that this drug-driven dietary revolution is leaving a clear mark at the macroeconomic data level.

According to Wind Trader, a research report by HSBC released on May 26 indicates that if half of the global obese population uses GLP-1 drugs and limits daily calorie intake to 2,250 calories, food consumption in different markets will decrease by 2% to 9%, thereby dragging down overall consumer spending by 0.5% to 1.5%. The U.S., Eastern Europe, and Latin America will bear the largest impact, while the effects on the Southeast Asian market will be relatively limited.

The report notes that currently about 12% of American adults and 7% of British adults are using GLP-1 drugs, and with the gradual launch of oral tablets and continuous price declines, the user base will keep expanding.

Early data from the UK shows a marked decrease in consumption of snacks, fast food, and ready-to-eat foods among users, while spending on vegetables, seafood, and vitamins is on the rise. In the U.S., logistics data firm Freightwaves estimates that GLP-1 drugs have eroded about 1% of food freight volume, equivalent to one million truckloads.

Declining Drug Prices Open Up Popularization Space

The rapid penetration of GLP-1 drugs owes much to structural improvements on the supply side. The HSBC report notes that the promotion of injectable forms was previously constrained by production capacity, price, and health insurance coverage, but these bottlenecks are quickly dissolving.

In the U.S., drug pricing agreements promoted by the Trump administration are pushing prices downward. Meanwhile, the patent protection for semaglutide (the core ingredient in brands like Ozempic, Wegovy, etc.) has expired in markets such as India, China, Brazil, and Canada, and the influx of generics is driving significant price reductions in these markets.

However, while oral tablets can expand the user population, their compliance is usually lower than the weekly injection forms, and actual weight loss results may not match clinical trial data. Patient duration of drug use may also be relatively shorter.

Currently, the obese population (BMI>30) in the U.S. is about 90 to 100 million, globally about 1 billion, but by the end of 2025, fewer than 2 million patients will be using the two main branded obesity drugs. HSBC believes this means GLP-1’s impact on consumer demand has not yet fully materialized, and now is a key moment to reassess its economic impact.

Structural Reshaping of Food Consumption

The HSBC report believes that the impact of GLP-1 drugs on food consumption will manifest in three aspects: a decrease in total volume, changes in structure, and disproportionately large impact on eating out.

In terms of total volume, drug users’ calorie intake is expected to converge to recommended levels. Currently, per capita daily calorie intake in major global economies is generally close to 3,000 calories, while the U.S. FDA’s recommended standard is 2,500 calories for men and 2,000 for women, averaging about 2,250 calories. This means drug users have a potential for a 30% to 40% decrease in calorie intake.

Structurally, a YouGov survey in the UK shows a sharp reduction in spending on snacks, fast food, and ready-to-eat foods among users, with increased spending on vegetables, seafood, vitamins, and protein bars. If the disproportionately large decline in consumption of high-priced processed foods is counted, the monetary drop in food spending will be 1.2 to 1.3 times the calorie drop.

In terms of consumption scenarios, eating out will be significantly more affected than eating at home. In the UK, eating out accounts for about 10% of consumer spending, and the price difference between eating out and eating at home is substantial, so the decline may be even more pronounced. Fast food, bakeries, and delivery will bear the brunt, while formal dining is less affected. Additionally, some GLP-1 drug users report a decrease in alcohol consumption, a trend consistent with the overall decline in drinking among younger generations.

Overall Consumption May Plunge 6%-7% in Extreme Scenarios

HSBC also calculated a more extreme scenario: If global per capita daily calorie intake generally falls to about 2,250 calories, calorie consumption will decrease by 30% to 40%, and overall consumer spending will slide by 6% to 7%.

The report also points out that the decline in consumption may be partially offset by other expenditures. Users must bear the costs of the drugs themselves, though this burden is expected to ease as prices fall, insurance coverage expands, and free prescriptions roll out. Meanwhile, savings on food spending may transform into incremental consumption in other areas, such as sports equipment, gym memberships, sports activities, and event tickets.

Differences in obesity rates among income groups will also affect the scale of impact in each economy. In Germany, the obesity problem is more concentrated among low-income groups; in India, the obesity rate is higher among high-income groups. Since high-income individuals spend more on food in absolute terms and are more capable of obtaining GLP-1 drugs earlier, overall food demand in emerging markets like India and Brazil may face greater downward pressure.

Systemic Underestimation Risk in Consumption Data

HSBC includes this research in its “Reading the Data” series, aiming to assess the disruption of emerging consumption habits to monthly and quarterly economic data. Against a backdrop where the accuracy and timeliness of economic data are already in question, GLP-1 drug adoption will add new complexity to interpreting consumption data.

The report notes that eating out accounts for about 5% of U.S. consumer spending, and even more in many other markets. If demand in this sector keeps shrinking, the drop in overall consumer spending could easily exceed 1%.

From a longer-term perspective, HSBC believes widespread use of GLP-1 drugs will also create spillover health benefits—declining incidence of obesity-related illnesses (such as cardiovascular disease and musculoskeletal injuries), which could significantly reduce pressure on public healthcare systems. The prerequisite is that drug users can maintain a healthy diet and moderate exercise while losing weight, to keep muscle mass.

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