The first day of the year, TSMC and Samsung surged to record highs, driving AI stocks to rise against the market trend.

On the first trading day of 2026, stocks in the AI chip supply chain surged strongly, becoming the market focus against a backdrop of divergent movements in the US stock market. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit record highs in both its US and Taiwan shares, while Samsung Electronics’ Korean shares jumped 7.2%, setting a new closing record and driving the entire AI sector to buck the overall market trend.

On Friday (January 2), South Korea's KOSPI index closed up 2.3%, breaking the 4300-point barrier for the first time in history, boosted mainly by news of Samsung Electronics’ HBM4 business gaining client recognition. TSMC benefited from the ramp-up of 2nm process mass production and surging demand for AI chips. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index edged down, and the S&P 500 registered a slight gain, highlighting the independent performance of AI-related stocks.

Aside from TSMC and Samsung Electronics, several AI-related stocks recorded gains on Friday. Sandisk, Micron, Western Digital, Intel, and Constellation Energy led the gainers list. Tech giants with trillion-dollar market caps like Nvidia and Broadcom also saw rises.

The sustained optimism towards AI infrastructure investment fueled this rally. According to Reuters, Nvidia is placing additional orders for H200 chips with TSMC. Morgan Stanley pointed out that 2026 memory supply is tightening, not loosening, and raised DRAM and NAND price forecasts by 62% and 75%, respectively.

Analysts generally believe the AI boom will continue into 2026. Bernstein listed TSMC as its top pick, forecasting its revenue growth at 23% for 2026 and 20% for 2027. Jim Reid, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, said continued global growth, optimism over AI potential, and central bank rate cuts will continue to drive financial asset performance.

TSMC Delivers 2nm Mass Production, Orders In High Demand

Recently, TSMC quietly announced on its official website that its 2nm process (N2) technology will begin mass production as scheduled in Q4 2025, marking the global semiconductor industry's official entry into the 2nm era. This technology uses first-generation nanosheet transistor architecture, boosting performance by 10%-15% at the same power consumption compared to N3E, and reducing power usage by 25%-30% at the same speed.

The N2 process adopts gate-all-around (GAA) nanosheet transistor technology, breaking the physical limitations faced by previous FinFET architecture at 3nm nodes. This technology turns the current channel from an upright "fin" into horizontally stacked "nanosheets," with the gate fully encapsulating the channel from all sides, greatly reducing leakage and increasing transistor density. Compared to pure logic circuit design, the N2P process increases transistor density by about 20% over N3E.

TSMC CEO C.C. Wei stated at the October earnings call that N2 progress is smooth with good yields, and expects a faster ramp-up in capacity in 2026 driven by smartphones, high-performance computing, and AI applications. The company plans to expand production simultaneously at its Kaohsiung Fab 22 and Hsinchu Fab 20, adopting a rare “dual-line strategy” to serve both smartphone and AI server chip product lines.

TSMC is also advancing deployment of more advanced processes. The company plans to mass produce N2P and A16 processes in the second half of 2026, with A16 using backside power delivery technology targeting AI and HPC processors. Foundations for the 1.4nm process plant began in November 2025, with risk trial production expected in 2027 and a mass production target set for 2028.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Nvidia is placing additional orders for H200 chips with TSMC. Sources say Nvidia has asked TSMC to start producing the extra chips, with work expected to kick off in Q2 2026.

Samsung HBM4 Gains Client Recognition, Re-Enters Competitive Track

Samsung Electronics’ stock surged 7.2% on Friday, hitting a closing record high, mainly boosted by news of its HBM4 business receiving positive client feedback.

According to a previous article by Wallstreet CN, Samsung Electronics co-CEO Kyung Kye-hyun revealed in a New Year’s address that the company’s HBM4 products have shown "differentiated competitiveness" and earned high praise from clients saying "Samsung is back."

This statement greatly boosted investor confidence, with market expectations that Samsung is gradually narrowing the gap with SK Hynix in the high bandwidth memory market, and is likely to re-enter Nvidia’s core supply chain with next-generation HBM products in 2026.

This surge was also supported by an overall resonance among Asian tech stocks and strong industry fundamentals. On Friday, spurred by Biren Technology’s IPO performance and DeepSeek’s progress, the Hang Seng Tech Index soared as much as 4.3% amid the AI investment frenzy.

On the macro front, South Korea’s semiconductor exports in December jumped 43% year-on-year, underlining the importance of Samsung and SK Hynix in global AI hardware growth.

Analysts Optimistic About AI Chip Supply Chain Prospects

Bernstein has named TSMC its top pick, citing the company's advantages in quality, risk, and valuation. The firm pointed out that, with no meaningful challengers, TSMC is the actual manufacturer of AI chips and thus one of the key beneficiaries of AI growth.

Bernstein expects that leadership in advanced technology in AI and TSMC will drive company revenue growth of 23% in 2026 and 20% in 2027.

The firm also stated that a milder exchange rate environment and better cost control will ease the cost burden of overseas manufacturing, projecting TSMC’s EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of 20% over the same period, slightly slower than revenue growth.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley emphasized that the memory market is tightening, not loosening, in 2026. The firm sees manufacturing constraints colliding with stronger demand, and has raised average price projections for DRAM in 2026 by 62% and NAND by 75%.

Driven by the surging demand for H200 chips, the firm no longer expects HBM3E average prices to fall, and has sharply raised Micron's earnings projections, with EPS for 2026 and 2027 up by 56% and 63%, respectively.

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