The first LNG ship "failed" to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia sharply raised Asian oil prices, and Goldman Sachs predicts a "new phase" of Asian supply chain disruption.

The first LNG ship "failed" to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia sharply raised Asian oil prices, and Goldman Sachs predicts a "new phase" of Asian supply chain disruption.

Two Qatari LNG vessels were intercepted and forced to turn back by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard after being granted passage; Saudi Aramco simultaneously raised its crude oil premium for Asian buyers to a record level. Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Middle East energy crisis on Asian supply chains is entering a crucial third stage.

According to media reports, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard intercepted two Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels heading toward the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning and ordered them to remain stationary.

The two vessels had previously been granted passage as part of an agreement brokered by Pakistan. If successful, they would be the first LNG shipments transported through the strait since the outbreak of conflict following US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28. Vessel tracking data shows that as of Monday evening, both ships remained in waters off the UAE coastline, unable to pass through the strait.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco announced it would raise the premium for its flagship "Arab Light" crude oil sent to Asia in May to $19.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark, a historic record. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi revealed that Iran’s attacks have damaged 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, with annual losses expected to reach $20 billion and downtime for related capacity expected to last three to five years.

Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Grigsby pointed out that the transmission of this energy crisis to Asian supply chains has entered its third stage— Energy and petrochemical feedstock costs are now permeating the pricing structures of export-oriented economies in Asia.

LNG ships turn back: The Hormuz passage remains effectively blocked

Media reports citing insiders say the Iranian Revolutionary Guard intercepted Qatari Energy’s "Al Daayen" and "Rasheeda" LNG vessels on Monday, ordering them to stop. Both ships had previously secured transit permission under Pakistan-led negotiations, with planned destinations for China and Pakistan respectively.

Vessel tracking data shows that "Al Daayen" switched its destination signal back to Qatar’s Ras Laffan port after rerouting, while "Rasheeda" switched to "standby." Both ships finished loading in Ras Laffan in late February, with their cargoes stranded for more than five weeks during the strait’s closure.

Previously, Japanese LNG ship "Sohar LNG" successfully passed through the strait, as confirmed by joint shipowner Mitsui O.S.K. Lines last Friday, but the vessel was empty at the time.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG traffic. Since the conflict began, the channel has effectively been under blockade. On March 26, Trump stated that Iran had agreed to let 10 oil tankers transit, but the interception of the LNG vessels indicates there remains high uncertainty in the implementation of relevant agreements.

Saudi Premium Record: Export rerouting via the Red Sea pushes costs to buyers

Bloomberg price lists show that Saudi Aramco has set the May premium for "Arab Light" crude sent to Asia at $19.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark, a record high. However, this is still below the previously surveyed expectation by traders and refineries of $40 a barrel.

Oil traders explained the premium fell short of market expectations partly because of volatile and declining Middle Eastern crude prices at the end of March. More importantly, structurally, Saudi Aramco has switched export routes from Ras Tanura port on the Persian Gulf to Yanbu port on the Red Sea, but pricing remains based on Ras Tanura loading. This means buyers must bear the extra transportation costs themselves.

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated during a March 10 conference call that the company had suspended most medium and heavy crude production and is now focusing on selling light and ultra-light crude through Yanbu. Aramco’s pipeline to the Red Sea has reached maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day and current exports average about 5 million barrels daily, roughly 70% of pre-war total exports.

Brent crude has gained over 50% since the conflict started. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only Gulf producers with significant alternative export routes bypassing the Hormuz bottleneck.

Qatar LNG Hit Hard: $20 Billion Annual Loss, Long-term Supply Gap for Europe and Asia

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said Iran’s attacks destroyed two of Qatar’s 14 LNG production lines and one of its two gas-to-liquid facilities, causing shutdown of 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity. Repairs are expected to take three to five years, with annual losses estimated at $20 billion.

Qatar is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, with major export markets in Asia. QatarEnergy may be forced to declare force majeure on long-term contracts with Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China for up to five years. US oil giant ExxonMobil is a partner in the damaged facilities, with a 34% stake in line "S4" and 30% in line "S6."

The impact of the attack extends to other energy products: condensate exports are expected to fall by 24%, LPG by 13%, helium by 14%, naphtha and sulfur each by 6%. al-Kaabi said: "I never dreamed that Qatar—or the entire region—would suffer such an attack, especially from a fellow Muslim country, and during Ramadan."

Surrounding Facilities Damaged: Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain Hit in Succession

The destruction from this round of conflict has spread to energy infrastructure in several Gulf countries.

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) reported Iran drone attacks caused "significant material loss" to its facilities, including the Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) and Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC), with multiple fires controlled by emergency crews. Earlier, the Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries and Kuwait airport had also been hit.

In the UAE, the Borouge petrochemical plant in Abu Dhabi’s Ruwais Industrial City was forced to halt production after a fire caused by debris from intercepted airstrikes on Sunday. Borouge is a joint venture between ADNOC and Borealis, with a nominal capacity of 5 million tonnes of polyolefins per year. Two days prior, Abu Dhabi’s largest gas processing plant at Habshan was also forced to shut down due to fire. Bahrain national oil company Bapco Energies also reported an Iranian drone attack on a storage facility that caused a fire, now extinguished.

Hours before these attacks, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency published a "target list" including power, water, steam facilities and oil, gas, and petrochemical assets, with PIC among them.

Goldman Sachs Warning: Asian Supply Chain Impact Enters Third Stage

According to Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Grigsby, the impact of the Middle East energy crisis on global supply chains follows three progressive stages.

The first stage is disruption of Middle Eastern oil exports, seen at the onset of conflict. The second stage is shrinking imports in key markets—which began to emerge in the latter half of March as tankers from the Middle East arrived at their destinations.

Currently, the crisis is entering its third stage: rising costs for energy and petrochemical feedstocks (including plastics) are gradually being passed through to the global commodity price structures led by Asia’s export-oriented economies.

Goldman’s analysis suggests the impact of this shock will spread from energy markets to a broader swath of manufacturing and consumer goods, imposing systemic pressure on Asian economies deeply embedded in global supply chains. Iraq has received an exemption from Iran and notified Asian buyers they can resume loading, but buyers are still seeking further confirmation of transit security provisions. Market uncertainty is unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

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