The following key events in the last four months of this year will determine the direction of U.S. tech stocks.
Statistics from Bank of America show that more than 140 important events will affect the performance of tech stocks in the remaining four months of this year.
According to "Chasing Wind Trading Desk" news, Bank of America stated in its September 2 report that artificial intelligence continues to be the most important theme in the industry, with large tech companies building models, developing agent functions, and integrating new features into existing products. Medium-sized internet companies benefit from access to AI models and functions from cloud service providers, leveraging their extensive customer data advantages.
The U.S. Department of Justice’s Google Search case verdict will be the biggest near-term catalyst. The ruling may impose major restrictions on Google’s Search distribution business or help clear major obstacles to its stock price.
Meta’s upcoming Connect conference is expected to showcase new smart glasses with display capabilities and outline its AI vision. Amazon will hold the AWS re:Invent conference in December, and investors expect the new infrastructure capacity to accelerate cloud service revenue growth and remain optimistic about AI spending through 2026.
There is a slight possibility of a new agreement between OpenAI and Microsoft, which could allow OpenAI models to enter AWS and Google Cloud platforms.
Regulatory Rulings as the Biggest Catalysts
The Google Department of Justice search case verdict is listed by BofA Merrill Lynch as the most important near-term catalyst.
The latest ruling shows that a U.S. federal judge ruled that Google can retain its Chrome browser but will be prohibited from signing exclusive contracts and must share search data. This ruling has been interpreted by the market as a major victory for Google, with parent company Alphabet’s share price surging more than 8% in after-hours trading.
Apart from the search case, Google also faces potential risks from Play Store policy changes.
In October 2024, a U.S. regional judge requires major adjustments to Google Android App Store policies, even though the judge also approved a temporary injunction to address Google’s appeal. If the appeal fails, it could face the emergence of new app stores and pressure on app commission rates.
AI Product Releases as Major Highlights
Meta’s Connect conference will be held on September 17, and the market currently expects the company to announce its first smart glasses with display code-named "Hypernova," with a base price of about $800. The company will also outline its AI vision in the CEO's keynote speech.
On Google's side, the company may publicly release consumer AI agents in the second half of the year, including Project Astra and Project Mariner.
Astra is designed as a cross-device multimodal assistant, offering real-time context and proactive task execution, while Mariner will be integrated into Chrome and Search to complete multi-step online tasks.
Amazon’s AWS will hold the re:Invent conference from December 1-5, focusing on AI products and features, including Bedrock and progress of Trainium/Graviton collaborations with customers. This event is seen as an important window to assess AI-related demand for 2026.
Reddit is developing technology to provide and monetize search functions, and the launch of search ads may boost revenue expectations. Pinterest is rolling out new AI tools such as Performance+, aimed at helping advertisers optimize ad creation, placement, and bidding, driving lower funnel performance.
E-commerce and Economic Transformations
In the e-commerce field, U.S. retailers’ e-commerce sales growth accelerated in the second quarter, and July data show third-quarter sales are benefiting from the acceleration of online versus offline shopping. Strong third-quarter performance is expected to boost optimism for holiday shopping in the fourth quarter, though there is a risk of pre-loading sales into 2025.
In autonomous driving, Uber’s expansion of autonomous vehicle partnerships is a key highlight. The company expects to launch services in Arlington in the fourth quarter through cooperation with May Mobility, and to expand cooperation with Waymo in Atlanta.
DoorDash is expected to complete the acquisition of Deliveroo in the fourth quarter, and this deal is expected to give DoorDash the largest market share in London. Tesla’s robotaxi expansion is seen as a potential threat to Uber and Lyft.
Online Travel and Other Segments
In online travel, Airbnb’s winter release conference is expected to launch new host services, which may become the biggest catalyst in the industry. Expedia is expected to benefit from improvements in U.S. travel data.
In terms of gaming and ad tech, AppLovin will open its Axon Ads Manager by invitation only starting October 1, which should attract long-tail e-commerce merchants more quickly during the holiday shopping season. The company’s e-commerce advertising products will also be available in many international markets.
Unity will focus on quarter-over-quarter improvement in Vector in the third quarter, and deviation from guidance of about 10% quarterly growth could lead to a recalibration of 2026 growth expectations.
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